BOCA RATON, Fla. — I revealed my Top 30 free agents this weekend, with predictions of where each player will sign. It’s an annual feature I enjoy doing, and the feedback is part of the fun. Goodness, do people get worked up over them. I’m at peace with the reality that most of these will wind up wrong; last year, I correctly placed seven of 30 … But might as well try, right?
With that feedback in mind, I always like to provide a “DVD extra,” to use vernacular displaying my advanced age, to shed some light on how I made these decisions.
The rankings themselves are pretty simple: The foundation is players’ statistics from the past two seasons, and then I sprinkle in some popular demand. I wanted to include all 20 players who received the qualifying offer, because they are particularly interesting to project: How much will some of these guys be hindered by being attached to draft compensation? And given our readership, I wanted to include local folk hero Bartolo Colon.
The predictions? Those are more complicated. The contract amounts come from conversations with front-office folks and free agents plus looks at past comparables. As for the teams, let’s break down both some general trends and some specific situations:
1. Draft order and qualified free agents: As I explained in advancing the Yankees’ arrival at the general managers’ meetings, teams that finished in Major League Baseball’s bottom 10 have their first-round draft picks protected; if those teams sign a qualified free agent, they surrender their next-highest selection. If you draft 11th or later, then you give up your first-round pick.
So when you look at the 2016 draft order, what should stand out to you the most is that the White Sox pick 10th and the Mariners 11th.
That means the Mariners have the most to lose by signing a qualified free agent. Bet against them doing so and giving up pick number 11. Conversely, it means the White Sox have the least to lose, since they retain that 10th pick regardless of whom they sign this offseason — one reason why I connected them with Ian Desmond.
The Red Sox are particularly interesting in this regard. They draft 12th, but they are very much looking to climb back into relevance after two straight losing seasons. It’s why I think they’re a good match with Johnny Cueto, who is not eligible for the qualifying offer because he was traded midseason. I have them also signing qualified free agent Alex Gordon, allowing them to acquire two high-end free agents while giving up just one pick.
2. Agent fits: The Cardinals don’t cut many huge deals, but they are comfortable doing so with Scott Boras, whose client Matt Holliday signed a seven-year, $120 million contract (the largest in the franchise’s history) with St. Louis after the 2009 season. That deal is nearly up, and Boras client Chris Davis looks like a potentially good fit with the Cardinals. So why the heck not?
3. The big two pitchers: The way I see it, there will be four teams most seriously in play for market kings Zack Greinke and David Price: the Dodgers, Cubs, Giants and Red Sox.
Greinke and the Dodgers have enjoyed a successful marriage, with Greinke opting out just to capitalize on his contract. Might as well keep that one going.
Price wants to go to the National League, many industry folks believe, and he really enjoyed playing for Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay. So as long as Maddon’s Cubs bring serious dollars to the table, they stand as the favorites for Price.
4. The big outfielders: Man, did I struggle trying to figure out future homes for Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton. They’ll get paid, but by whom?
For Cespedes, I settled on the Giants, because they’re going to be in spending mode after missing the playoffs (of course they did — it was an odd-numbered year). And because Cespedes is the sort of dynamic player who can sell tickets, yet won’t be the focal point on a team with Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, which is probably a good thing. And because Cespedes could play center field if the injury-prone Angel Pagan has to go back on the disabled list.
Heyward to the Tigers? Detroit owner Mike Ilitch, 86, is not shy at all about using free agency to get his coveted title. The Tigers lineup could use a lefty hitter to balance out a group of righties headed by Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez. And Heyward’s defense would help in cavernous Comerica Park.
Upton to the Cubs? The Cubs are ramping up after leaping from 73 wins in 2014 to 97 in 2015. We saw during the playoffs Kyle Schwarber probably is not an outfielder. So what the hell.
The next big outfielder is Gordon, and I followed the lead of my Post teammate Joel Sherman, who served as my Yoda for this project. He reported during the postseason the Red Sox, their outfield surplus notwithstanding, could be a surprise fit for Gordon.
5. Jordan Zimmermann to the Astros: I think Houston is ready to spend more liberally after its big leap of 2015. Zimmermann would give Houston a nice arm to pair up with 2015 Cy Young Award favorite Dallas Keuchel. And I threw John Lackey to the Astros, too; Lackey looks like he has a good few years left, and the Astros could benefit from his experience (even if part of that experience is negative).
6. Ben Zobrist to the Royals: Zobrist was born in Illinois and lives in Nashville. He is said to like the Midwest and not be inclined to chase down every last dollar. So I could see him taking a rich, three-year deal, with a vesting option for a fourth season, to stick with Kansas City. From the team’s perspective, the Royals probably will decide homegrown favorite Gordon is too rich for its blood and will view Zobrist as a nice consolation prize in terms of maintaining an important piece of the championship club.
7. “What about the Mets?!” I got a lot of this: “Darren O’Day and Bartolo Colon and that’s it?!” Well, first of all, no, that’s not it. There are other free agents, and there are trades. Yet based on the Mets’ recent history and on what Sandy Alderson has said just in the past week, I don’t see them dramatically raising their payroll. So even though Desmond would be a fine fit, he’s coming off a weak season, which gives the Mets reason to pass. (Of course, the Mets absolutely were right in declining to give up Noah Syndergaard for Desmond. Could you imagine the outrage now among Mets fans had they done that?)
I could see the Mets going aggressively after O’Day, paying him annually what they just finished paying Daniel Murphy; Joel Sherman reports of several other teams in the O’Day market. And I think there’s mutual interest in re-upping with Colon, who greatly enjoyed his two seasons with the Mets and would be open to a swingman role. The Mets outbid everyone for Colon two years ago, and that was when he was coming off an All-Star season with Oakland. Would anyone outbid the Mets now?
8. “What about the Yankees?!” I got a lot of this, too: “How come they’re not on here?” Because there’s reason to think the Yankees won’t be seriously engaged in this free-agent market. They have strikingly little money coming off their books, and Hal Steinbrenner repeatedly has stated his desire to lower payroll. Coming off a season in which they returned to the playoffs after two barren years and produced Greg Bird and Luis Severino from a refueled farm system, Steinbrenner doesn’t appear compelled to go on an unscheduled spending spree. Instead, I see this winter as similar to last winter, when the focus was more on Cashman’s trade savvy (which worked out quite well) than the Yankees’ mighty checking account.
9. Matt Wieters: I admit being surprised that no one has accepted the qualifying offer in the prior three years of this system, and that history clearly emboldened teams to make offers to iffy guys and bet on them declining.
I can’t help myself: I think eventually someone will swallow his pride and take the one-year, $15.8 million deal. And I think that person this winter will be Wieters, who struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery and who could benefit greatly from what his agent Boras calls “a pillow contract” — $15.8 million for a pillow contract is pretty darn good.
Let’s close by catching up on many Pop Quiz questions:
1. From Bob Buscavage of Moriches: Name the current Angels player who gets mentioned in a 2015 episode of “Rizzoli & Isles.”
2. From Buscavage again: What former Cardinal appeared on a 1994 episode of “Law & Order”?
3. From Gary Mintz of South Huntington: In the 2015 film “The Age of Adaline,” the two main characters (Blake Lively and Michael Huisman) are discussing a joke that involves a horse and a Hall of Fame player. Name the player.
4. From Andy Romanic of Freeport: In the 1951 film “The Day The Earth Stood Still,” young Bobby Benson (Billy Gray) wears a baseball cap sporting the logo of what team?
5. From Dianne Rosen of Boca Raton, Fla.: In a 2005 episode of “House, M.D.,” a baseball-playing patient writes that Dr. Wilson is to medicine what a Hall of Famer is to pitching. Name the Hall of Famer.
6. From Bill Abelson of Seattle: Name the current major-league outfielder who appeared in such films as “Home Alone 3” (1997) and “Jack” (1996).
7. From Romanic again: Name the former pitcher played by Bill Paxton in the 2014 film “Million Dollar Arm.”
Your Pop Quiz answers:
1. Mike Trout
2. Keith Hernandez
3. Ted Williams
4. The Yankees
5. Cy Young
6. Seth Smith
7. Tom House
If you have a tidbit that connects baseball with popular culture, please send it to me at kdavidoff@nypost.com.