If there were a baseball overlord — work with me here — who told Mets upper management before the World Series they would not win, but in exchange they could lose however they wanted, would the end result look something like the actual end result?
The Mets would want: (1) the series to go at least five games to assure three home gates at Citi Field; (2) their two major free agents to have such high-profile failures that the uproar would not be quite as great when Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy were not retained.
It is hard to call a team lucky that just lost the World Series in five games, but …
Even at the height of Cespedes-mania and Murphy-palooza, the Mets were not plotting to keep either. Part of that is because ownership is more likely to raise payroll incrementally than substantially. Part is because Sandy Alderson’s front office prides itself on making detached, logical decisions, and there were whole careers to suggest Cespedes was not really a center fielder or as good as he was in August and September, and Murphy was not the power maven of October.
The Mets will give Murphy the $15.8 million qualifying offer. He is almost certain to reject it, and it is conceivable he could test the market, not find it much to his liking and circle back to the Mets. Cespedes’ market would have to fall precipitously from expectations, perhaps down to the $90 million-to-$100 million range, for the Mets to be interested, and even then my gut says they have seen the best and worst of the player, don’t really think he is an everyday center fielder and will let him leave.
That means the Nos. 3-4 hitters on an NL champion would be gone. Add that to still trying to find a longterm shortstop and solve the bullpen, and the Mets have issues heading into a pressure-point offseason.
The Wilpons and Alderson cannot let 2015 be 2006 — one playoff season surrounded on both sides by failure. The Mets have a window of three or more years in which they have the game’s best stable of young starters. They are in a division in which the Braves and Phillies are rebuilding, the Marlins have yet to show they can escape dysfunction and the Nationals are about to take a hit to their talent base through free-agent departures. The Mets must seize this opportunity to dominate the division for several years. Here are thoughts on how:
Keep the starting pitching
There will be calls for the Mets to use a strength to fix a weakness. But as long as the Mets have Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard and, come June, Zack Wheeler, they almost can’t be bad. It is Alderson’s job to figure out how to build excellence around the strength without subtracting from it.
All but Syndergaard from that group already have undergone Tommy John surgery. Matz and Syndergaard never have gone through a full major league season. The history of the game suggests not everyone stays healthy together. And all four just endured the heaviest workloads of their pro careers. So if you trade one, lose one to injury and have one regress, suddenly there is no depth. That is why — unless there is an ideal trade — the Mets should keep Jonathon Niese and see if they can re-sign Bartolo Colon. There is strength in these numbers.
What about shortstop?
Unless you are willing to gamble Ian Desmond is far better — and more consistent — than he was in 2015, the free-agent market offers few obvious upgrades. Which is why the Mets just might be picking among Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada, Matt Reynolds and Gavin Cecchini again.
Because is it so hard to find quality at short, this is the one place where I would consider using a starter in a trade. The Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox are looking for a top-of-the-rotation piece, and if they are willing to part with Addison Russell, Corey Seager or Xander Bogaerts, respectively, moving Harvey is a consideration.
I don’t think the Tigers (Jose Iglesias) or Marlins (Adeinny Hechavarria) are ready to move a shortstop even to solve long-term rotation needs, but both Igelsias and Hechavarria are such defensive whizzes, the Mets should consider building a package around Wheeler. The Cubs’ Javier Baez is heady, good on defense and has 30-homer potential, but can you live with the possible 200 strikeouts?
Does the exit of the GM (Alex Anthopoulos) who brought Troy Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays and the entrance of the more conservative team president Mark Shapiro mean Tulowitzki and the five years at $98 million left on his contract might get dealt again? Would the Braves consider dealing Andrelton Simmons?
The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar, once among the majors’ best prospects, is DH-ing to good notice in the Arizona Fall League, but has yet to return to shortstop after missing two seasons with shoulder problems. Is he worth the big-risk, big-reward gamble?
How about the lineup?
The Mets are hoping full healthy seasons by Michael Conforto, Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright in unison with Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson give them a strong base. But more is needed.
They would love a big bat to replace Cespedes, but the Mets are set at first (Duda), left field (Conforto) and right field (Granderson), so free agents such as Chris Davis and Justin Upton don’t fit. Nor does a trade candidate such as the Rockies’ Carlos Gonzalez. It might be impossible to find an obvious slugger who works for this roster or payroll.
The Mets might have to go for emulating the Royals and filling their lineup with tough outs. The Mets tried to get Ben Zobrist in a trade before he landed with Kansas City. He would be a better version of Murphy (upgrades on defense, on-base skills), but he is going to be in demand in free agency. If the Tigers are rebuilding somewhat, would they want to move second baseman Ian Kinsler (two years left on contract at $30 million), who would bring sure defense and contact skills the Mets cannot yet be sure they have in Dilson Herrera?
The Mets will need a lefty complement to Juan Lagares for center field and protection for left if there are growing pains for Conforto. Free agent Gerardo Parra is ideal for that, but might want a sure starting job. Would this be better solved via trade for someone such as Arizona’s Ender Inciarte, Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon, Seattle’s Brad Miller or Toronto’s Ben Revere?
Is there relief?
The Mets need to add more certainty around Jeurys Familia. They must decide if they will retain Jenrry Mejia and Addison Reed by tendering contracts and/or Tyler Clippard and Jerry Blevins, who are free agents. I believe the Mets should prioritize a more surefire eighth-inning piece who could close if necessary, such as Darren O’Day or Joakim Soria, and a lefty such as Tony Sipp.
Building a stronger bullpen is one way to lessen the burden on those young starters who all need to be coddled a bit in 2016 after their burdensome 2015.
I suspect Mets fans want a big splash after such a strong season, but if you told me the Mets deepened their roster by adding, say, Zobrist, Parra, O’Day and Sipp while not giving up any of the starting pitching, that would be a successful offseason.