Carmelo? Love? Kobe? How Team USA gets cut to 12 players

Team USA wrapped up its Las Vegas minicamp this week with its annual Blue and White scrimmage Thursday night.
Though the scrimmage was the usual dunk fest with little actual substance, the occasion had some significance as the final time Team USA would convene before chairman Jerry Colangelo, coach Mike Krzyzewski and the rest of the Team USA staff decides on the 12-man roster that will go to Rio de Janeiro for the 2016 Summer Olympics.
Unlike for last summer’s FIBA World Cup, when Team USA went through a multi-step cut-down process, Colangelo and Krzyzewski have said they want to set their roster prior to next summer, to give the team as much time as possible before Rio to get used to playing together.
So who will make the cut? Here are The Post’s best guesses:

Guards

Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are all locks (assuming health, which goes for everyone). That leaves eight guards – Bradley Beal, Michael Carter-Williams, Mike Conley, DeMar DeRozan, Kyrie Irving, Victor Oladipo, Klay Thompson and John Wall – likely fighting for one spot.

The battle really comes down to a group of four: Irving and Wall at point guards, Beal and Thompson at shooting guard.
In a vacuum, Wall should get this spot because of his defensive ability. But these choices aren’t made in a vacuum. Irving has a relationship with Krzyzewski going back to his days at Duke, and he’s a client of Nike, which also outfits Team USA (Wall is one of the faces of Adidas). Irving gets the fifth guard spot.

Forwards

LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony are the locks. Some might be surprised to see Anthony automatically lumped in, but Team USA’s higher-ups value service time with the program, so Anthony will be on the team if he successfully returns from knee surgery.
That leaves 10 players – Harrison Barnes, Jimmy Butler, Kenneth Faried, Rudy Gay, Paul George, Tobias Harris, Gordon Hayward, Andre Iguodala, Kawhi Leonard and Chandler Parsons – likely for two spots.
The upper tier here comprises Butler, George, Iguodala and Leonard. If George is healthy, he seems like a safe bet. He’s a terrific player, and Team USA wouldn’t look very good leaving him behind after he returned from suffering a horrific broken leg in a Team USA uniform last summer.
It’s Butler, Iguodala and Leonard for the final spot. Experience with the team favors Iguodala, who won gold medals at the 2010 World Championships and the 2012 Olympics. But Iguodala will be 32 next summer. Leonard will be 25 and is simply the most talented player of this group. That should tip the scale for the Spurs new cornerstone to get the final nod.

Centers

Because Team USA plays with a small lineup, there are 10 big men on the preliminary roster that fall into the center category: LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Draymond Green, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, Kevin Love and Mason Plumlee.

Davis is a lock to be the starting center and Plumlee is an easy cut, so that leaves eight players fighting for the final spot.
Howard falls short because of age and health issues. Jordan and Drummond – while fitting with the style Team USA wants to play – are liabilities because of their horrible free-throw shooting, which could be exploited in international competition. Aldridge goes because of his prior decommitments from Team USA. Green, for all of his talents, particularly defensively, isn’t of the same caliber as the others.
If Krzyzewski wants a true backup center behind Davis – remember: James, Durant, Anthony, George and Leonard all could play power forward – then Cousins is the pick, though his temperament remains a concern. If he’s most interested in adding another floor spacer, there’s Love, the best shooting big man in the league (and a gold medal winner in 2012). And if he wants the wild card, he can go with Griffin, who has the ability to get a rebound and start the break.
The guess here is they go with Griffin because of his all-around dynamism.

Full roster

Guards: Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook
Forwards: Carmelo Anthony Kevin Durant, Paul George, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard
Center: Anthony Davis, Blake Griffin

One final note

Late Thursday night, Colangelo said Kobe Bryant would like to “ride out to the sunset” by winning a gold in Rio, but he wants to earn his way onto the team.
The fact of the matter is there is no way Bryant will deserve to make the team; he’s nowhere near the quality of the 12 players listed above. However, if he’s healthy and wants to be there, it would be surprising if Krzyzewski and Colangelo don’t take him.
If Bryant goes, Leonard would seem like the person to lose his spot to the future Hall of Famer.