This is one of those moments when it does not matter what Brian Cashman says, which is that he is more likely not to make a trade than make one between now and Friday’s non-waiver deadline.
It does not matter that his history is generally to do deals that augment the roster at this time of year rather than scream blockbuster.
His fellow executives simply ignore the words and the deeds. They see the Yankees in first place with a strong chance to win the division. They see a power-bat, power-bullpen arm combo that could do October damage. Thus, rival executives simply do not believe this deadline is coming and going without Cashman improving his rotation.
One top AL executive said definitively what many suggested: “There is no question the Yankees are getting a pitcher.”
Outside officials see the volatility in the Yankees’ rotation being a threat to undermine even making the playoffs plus the need — under the best scenario — for the Yanks to find someone to join Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda in a postseason front three.
Cashman has said he is comfortable with the depth to withstand the season, not just Tanaka and Pineda, but Nate Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, CC Sabathia, Chris Capuano, Adam Warren, Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell.
Cole Hamels is owed $73.5 million from 2016 to 2018 and the price for the Yanks — with a 50 percent tax hit — becomes $110.25 million, and Hal Steinbrenner has made it clear he does not want to add another salary of that weight. In addition, the Phillies have said the trade must start with Aaron Judge or Luis Severino and the Yankees have let teams know they have no interest in moving either Greg Bird or Jorge Mateo.
The Yanks feel they have been working hard in acquiring young players such as Eovaldi and Didi Gregorius and protecting the best of their farm to avoid becoming the Phils — a team that grew old, had too many poor long-term deals and lacked the prospect depth to cover for all of that. And they do not want to start chipping away at their future for momentary gratification.
Cashman’s penchant this time of year is to make an offer and not budge and see if teams that were asking for more blink at the deadline. He is only more empowered to follow that script now because the Yanks have built that sizeable AL East lead. So what kind of offer could he make to get a high-end starter that does not entail giving up the best of the farm?
I concocted something and ran it by a bunch of executives. Some thought it was plausible and others less so. Keep in mind this is my creation and not something I heard is a possibility:
What if the Yankees offered Nova and secondary prospects to the White Sox for Jeff Samardzija or the Tigers for David Price?
The first thing you would have to believe is the Yankees consider Samardzija enough of an upgrade on Nova that they would be willing to give up a year and two months of Nova (who is a free agent after next season) for a few months of Samardzija (who is free after this season). I think they would.
After a rough beginning (4-4, 4.93), Samardzija was 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in his previous eight starts going into his Monday outing, and that is operating with Chicago’s poor defense behind him. Also, he has pitched at least seven innings in each of his last nine starts. This is key. Aside from Tanaka and Pineda, Joe Girardi has been pretty much on red alert after two turns through opposing lineups with the rest of his rotation. Samadzija would protect the pen now and be the No. 3 starter probably in the playoffs, plus he is a pitcher the Yanks would get to see in their environment. I am not sure if the Yanks would spend on a free-agent starter, but Samardzija would perhaps top the list, in part because Jim Hendry, a key Cashman lieutenant, drafted Samardzija as Cubs GM and is said to still think highly of the righty.
The White Sox are on the periphery of the wild-card race and don’t want to give up now and want to go for it next year, not rebuild. The White Sox expect they can’t retain Samardzija, so Nova gives Chicago someone to stick in the rotation now to keep trying to win and — a year further removed from Tommy John surgery in 2016 — a pitcher who at full health is not that different from Samardzija. Plus, they would get a few second-tier prospects.
The Tigers have the same scenario. They don’t want to give up now, don’t think they will keep Price and don’t want to rebuild. So Nova fits in a similar mode of keep trying now, have someone for next year. Detroit would needed greater secondary pieces for Price than Chicago for Samardzija, but part of that could be bullpen arms such as Jacob Lindgren and/or Nick Rumbelow for a team that keeps trying and failing to fix its relief corps.
In theory, the Yanks could also do this kind of trade with starters with more remaining service time than Nova such as Eovaldi or Warren. It would replicate what the Tigers did to get 1½ years of Price last July giving up Drew Smyly plus Nick Franklin and well-regarded shortstop prospect Willy Adames.
The Yanks are not in the desperate mode for a starter like a few other contenders, notably the Dodgers and Blue Jays. Therefore, even if the White Sox and/or Tigers decide to sell and like this scenario, it very well might be topped by hungrier clubs.