After months of waiting, NBA draft week finally has arrived.
For Knicks fans, this is what they have been waiting for since about the start of December, when it was clear their team would have a far better chance of winning the lottery rather than a playoff berth. Even after the Knicks landed just the fourth pick, they will have a chance to select a difference-maker at Thursday night’s event in Brooklyn.
Using data going back to the 2006 draft — the first year the current rules barring high schoolers from entering the draft were instituted — here is a look at some of the draft trends that have developed, and how they might give us a look into how things will shake out this year.
1. Freshmen dominating
Since the one-and-done rule went into effect, only twice — 2006 (Andrea Bargnani) and 2009 (Blake Griffin) — has someone besides a freshman been selected with the top pick. That trend seems almost certain to continue this year, with Karl-Anthony Towns — or possibly Jahlil Okafor or D’Angelo Russell — expected to be taken by the Timberwolves.
This year looks poised to equal last year’s freshman-heavy top 10, with six players — including Emmanuel Mudiay, who went from playing high school ball here to playing in China — one year removed from high school set to join the NBA after that many did a year ago. That would mark the fifth time in 10 years that at least five of the first 10 picks would be freshmen.
2. Blue bloods are top suppliers
As you might expect, the college basketball’s blue-blood programs are the top producers of first-round picks. Kentucky is the runaway leader in first-round talent with 15 draft picks — and that’s before the Wildcats add potentially four more to that list this week.
North Carolina and Kansas each have 11 first-rounders, though only Kansas is expected to have one this year, and Duke and UCLA each have had 10.
3. Foreign players a mixed bag
Latvian forward Kristaps Porzingis and Croatian swingman Mario Hezonja are two of this year’s top prospects, with both comfortably projected to land inside the top 10. Recent history suggests taking foreign prospects in the lottery is a bit of a mixed bag. None of the 12 players selected in the lottery from overseas in the past nine drafts have become an All-Star — the best of the bunch being Danilo Gallinari, Ricky Rubio or Jonas Valanciunas. But for every one decent player there was a complete flameout — like Mouhamed Sene (Seattle, 10th in 2006), Yi Jianlian (Bucks, sixth in 2007) and Jan Vesely (Wizards, sixth in 2011).
In fact, the best foreign players to come to the NBA recently have been selected in the latter half of the first round (Serge Ibaka, Nicolas Batum, Nikola Mirotic, Donatas Motiejunas, Rudy Gobert and Tiago Splitter).
4. Point guards are safest
If you’re a D’Angelo Russell fan, you’ll like this one. Point guards taken in the top five almost always have been hits. Though the jury is still out on Dante Exum, the prior six floor generals taken in the top five — Kyrie Irving, John Wall, Rubio, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Mike Conley — have included an MVP, four All-Stars and two more quality players in Conley and Rubio.
There is more uncertainty at other positions. Just two of 18 wing players taken in the top five (Kevin Durant and James Harden) and six 20 big men (LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Horford, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis) have become All-Stars.