Reverting to its old tactic of using diplomatic talks to buy time, Iran has revealed that it does not expect to reach a “final agreement” on its nuclear program with the P5+1 group, led by the United States.
Speaking on the eve of a fresh round of talks in Vienna last week, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the man in charge of the negotiations, said the June 30 deadline announced for the end of talks was “an arbitrary date” that need not be respected.
And there are many signs Tehran isn’t bluffing.
First, the new round of talks has been downgraded to lower-level officials from the Iranian foreign ministry and the European Union.
This means any putative agreement would have to win approval from the higher levels of the governments concerned.
Another sign is Iran’s decision to publicly reject all the “concessions” that Secretary of State John Kerry had initially claimed he’d obtained from Iran after almost two years of secret, semi-secret and public negotiations. (Kerry has since withdrawn his notorious “factsheet” which President Obama had hailed as “a chance in a lifetime.”)
Another sign that Iran wants to stretch the talks is its insistence on what Araqchi describes as “fully detailed, point-by-point” agreement. The text submitted by Iran runs 20 pages, with five addenda each running 20 to 30 pages.
Thus, the first task of the two negotiating teams would be to reduce a text of 170 pages to “no more than 50 to 60 pages,” Araqchi insists.
Even if that were accomplished, there’s another obstacle: Iran wants the official text to be in Persian, with an English translation — an exercise that offers endless opportunities for obfuscation.
The most potentially controversial proposal by Tehran concerns the so-called “synchronization of mutual moves.”
Iran argues that re-designing aspects of its nuclear program and down-processing its stocks of enriched uranium could take “months, if not years,” whereas the lifting of sanctions imposed against the Islamic Republic could happen in a single day.
“What we are looking for is an agreement about the lifting of sanctions against Iran,” Araqchi says. “We shall make no moves until sanctions are lifted.”
But why should Iran want to slow down, if not actually halt, a process in which Obama has invested so much energy and enthusiasm?
The short answer is that Tehran has already made spectacular gains.
Obama has actively lobbied against the imposition of any new congressional sanctions.
That, in turn, has made it diplomatically impossible for the European Union to ponder new sanctions of its own. Thus Tehran is certain that as long as Obama is around it would risk no new punishment.
Additionally, without slowing down any aspect of its nuclear program, Tehran has already benefited from the easing or lifting of a whole raft of sanctions.
The un-freezing of some of Iran’s financial assets has helped President Hassan Rouhani’s administration deal with its cash-flow problems and even raise the military budget by a whopping 26 percent.
The prospect of Iran breaking the sanctions regime has also boosted demand for foreign investment in Iran.
Furthermore, Obama has made it clear that he will under no circumstances ponder military action against Iran. In fact, he has used “no war with Iran” as a mantra in all his talks with foreign, notably Arab and European, leaders.
Thanks to US lobbying on Tehran’s behalf — ignoring six UN Security Council resolutions — the P5+1 have recognized Iran’s right to enrich uranium, albeit within limits for 10 years, and to reach the “breakthrough” point after which it would be able to build nuclear warheads.
Finally, one should take into account the bazaar mindset that has inspired the Khomeinist regime’s strategy since its inception 36 years ago.
According to that mind-set, one should always keep the prospect of making a deal dangling in front of a keen customer who will end up paying far more for far less.
The mullahs may have decided that Obama, who is heading for the exits, has already given them whatever he can and that it is in Iran’s best interest to keep the promise of a deal dangling in front of the next resident of
the White House.
They’ll be hoping for another naive, desperate president.