I admit it. I am flummoxed by what to believe in spring training. It is the only game in town, but it is a deceptive game.
Regulars, for example, hardly play full games. Traveling teams infrequently take their stars. What do I make of a matchup between a Single-A pitcher and veteran major leaguer?
So I mostly dismissed how poorly the Nationals played in three games in front of me and prioritized the best team on paper. However, at Tradition Field late in March, Washington manager Matt Williams would not dismiss it.
I mentioned the quality of the roster a few times, and each time Williams countered that it would mean nothing if the Nationals did not play cohesively and at a high level.
I still thought it was manager-speak. The NL East, after all, had three tiers — the Phillies and Braves were going to be terrible, the Mets and Marlins were going to be aspirational and the Nats were going to be dominant. One scout suggested a pool for how many games Washington would win the NL East by.
The Nationals won the NL East by 17 games last year — the largest division triumph since the 2008 Angels — and added Max Scherzer, which made their rotation so good that 15-game winner Tanner Roark was bumped to the pen. They had everyday stars, too, in Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman.
So, I ignored the bad spring and the industry buzz about a leadership void in the Nats’ clubhouse and wondered whether the drill sergeant-y Williams had the flexibility/personality combo to navigate his roster in bad times and whether having four huge walk-year players (Desmond, Span, Doug Fister and Jordan Zimmermann) could be unnerving.
Even now, after the terrible start, I still think the Nats will win the East because those names on paper have not gone away, and maybe they will get the vital Rendon (who has yet to play this season) off the disabled list soon. To this point, only Harper and Scherzer have performed consistently well, and it would seem impossible the other stars will stay down. Perhaps their 13-12 triumph Tuesday over the Braves in which they rallied from deficits of 9-1 and 10-2 will be a watershed, turnaround moment (they clobbered Atlanta, 13-4, on Wednesday.)
Nevertheless, a door has opened to the Mets and, perhaps, the Marlins if they can get their act together. The sloppy play did carry into Washington’s season. The questions about leadership — in the clubhouse and manager’s office — have not vanished.
And fixes will not be easy. The Nats pretty much have established players at every position and the powerhouse rotation. They can do something seismic like, say, trading Zimmermann after toying with that notion throughout the offseason. But the risk of disassembling this group might just unleash panic and discontent in the clubhouse.
Once the Nationals went seven years at $210 million with Scherzer, they were all in. Conversely, with the four free agents, the Nats cannot savage their system to win today and damn tomorrow.
It leaves the Nationals in a critical situation as April nears its conclusion — are they about to be the team we expected, or was March more revelatory than we thought?
Future’s not now for Astros
Jed Lowrie had broken out as one of the better free-agent signings, hitting .300 with four homers and a .999 OPS. But then a familiar nemesis — injury — struck.
Lowrie tore ligaments in his right thumb, sending him to the disabled list for the eighth time in his career. He will be out two months, at least, likely longer.
The Astros were aware of his injury history when they signed him to a three-year, $23 million contract. They also were aware he was being signed to play shortstop for only part of that deal because of the presence of Carlos Correa, the first pick in the 2012 draft.
With Lowrie down, the question became is the future now?
The Cubs brought up their 21-year-old shortstop prodigy, Addison Russell, to play second base when crisis hit at that position.
Should Houston do the same at short with the 20-year-old Correa, who was hitting .400 in 17 Double-A games with five homers, 22 RBIs and an .800 slugging percentage?
In the short-term, the Astros decided to go with Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Villar to try to keep their surprising 13-7 start going. But their general manager, Jeff Luhnow, responded to an email by saying, “Carlos is getting close, but he’s had 70 at-bats above A-ball so we’d like to see more. We are going to go with Gonzo/Villar for now, but we will be monitoring the situation closely.”
Price check! Brewers may quickly become sellers
The Brewers have played seven series this season and lost each of them. They have the majors’ worst record and other clubs are focusing on Milwaukee becoming the first willing seller in the trade market. One executive speculated that beyond catcher Jonathan Lucroy and starter Jimmy Nelson any other Brewer could be in play.
The contract Milwaukee would most like to get rid of almost certainly won’t happen because of Ryan Braun’s drug history, declining play (he had a .590 OPS before hitting two homers Wednesday) and five years at $95 million remaining on his contract after making $12 million this season.
But third baseman Aramis Ramirez, who announced his retirement after this season, has gotten hot. Kyle Lohse, a free agent after this season, has not pitched well, but has a good track record. Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra and Adam Lind could be viewed as helpful pieces for a contender.
The most interesting Brewer, though, would be Carlos Gomez, who could come off the disabled list (hamstring) as early as Saturday. He is signed through next year ($9 million) and if the Brewers think they are looking at a long rebuild and are unlikely to extend the center fielder, now may be the best time to get the biggest return for the former Met.