One thing that jumps off the Ravens-Patriots stat sheet is that the teams have almost identical yardage numbers. The Patriots were better on offense by 0.6 yards per game, the Ravens had the edge on D by 7.2 yards per game.
But in 2014 these were far from similar teams in terms of quality. The Ravens were fully extended, having to win in Week 17 and get help to make the wild card at 10-6. This, with an out-of-division schedule that included games against the Titans, Jaguars and the entire desultory NFC South. The Patriots, meanwhile, ran away with their division despite the 10th-toughest schedule in the NFL (the Ravens’ was ranked 28th).
Not only that, the Patriots did their best work against the toughest teams: They were 4-1 against teams that made the playoffs, beating the Bengals by 26, Broncos and Colts by 22 each, and Lions by 25. The Ravens went 2-4 against playoff teams, beating the Steelers and Panthers and losing to the Bengals (twice), Colts and Steelers.
Yes, the Ravens are 2-1 in the postseason against the Patriots, winning in Foxborough in the AFC title game on the way to their Super Bowl title following the 2012 season. So they come in with no fear, with belief.
But the belief here is this is the Patriots’ year, and has been throughout. Rob Gronkowski is back and fairly unstoppable. Tom Brady is laser-focused (with 33 TDs to just nine INTs). Bill Belichick is still the best, and now he has Darrelle Revis to take away any Ravens WR he chooses.
The picks: Patriots -7 and Over 47¹/₂
Patriots, 30-20
SEAHAWKS (-10¹/₂) over Panthers; Under 39¹/₂: The defending champs fiddled around for the first couple of months, but at the end of the season the Seahawks rediscovered their identity. In the final six games, all wins, the Legion of Boom defense gave up 3, 3, 14, 7, 6 and 6 points. Who’d they play in that span? The Niners twice, the Cardinals twice (once with Drew Stanton at QB), the Eagles and Rams.
All credit to the Panthers for winning their last four to get to 7-8-1 and steal the division title. Ryan Lindley couldn’t make them pay for their mistakes last week, but Russell Wilson and the LOB will, for sure.
Seahawks, 27-10
Sunday
BRONCOS (-7) over Colts; Over 54: Mentioned this stat last week: The Colts have not scored more than 27 points in a game since Week 9 (when they won 40-24 at the Giants). Didn’t let that prevent a correct Colts over Bengals pick last week, but figure that two-month offensive lull will be a problem against the Broncos’ defense, which ranked No. 1 in the AFC in yardage.
In the season opener, also in Denver, the Broncos jumped out to leads of 24-0 and 31-10 before allowing Andrew Luck two TD passes in the final eight minutes to make the final score palatable.
C.J. Anderson has been a revelation at running back, and Peyton Manning doesn’t have to do it alone. It’ll be sunny, dry and in the low 40s, perfect weather for points.
Broncos, 34-23
Cowboys (+6) over PACKERS; Under 53: Maybe this pick’s a little bandwagon-y, but there’s a lot to like about the Cowboys, starting with their 8-0 road record. That means they went anywhere and beat everyone, good teams and bad, on turf or grass, indoors or out, in the heat or cold.
The suspicion here is Dallas cleared a major hurdle last week. The Lions have a brass-knuckles defense, and the Cowboys survived despite no room for DeMarco Murray to run and some ungodly hits on Tony Romo. Sunday in Green Bay, they should be able to play the game the way they like to play it.
(Oh, and the picked-up flag? It was a travesty, but now we can file that with the likes of the Tuck Rule play, Don Denkinger’s call in the 1985 World Series, and the calls against the Rangers in the Stanley Cup final last year.)
Aaron Rodgers is nursing a bad calf, and if he’s even 25 percent less mobile, that might mean two or three extra hits. The Pack may pull this out because he and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are that good together, but the ’Boys and the points look even better.
Cowboys, 27-24
Lock the week: Seahawks (Locks 8-10 in 2014)
Last week: 3-1 selections, 2-2 over/unders.