Welcome to December, when we separate the men from the boys in the NFL.
Here’s how I see it now:
NFC
The Road to the Super Bowl will go through Lambeau Field, where Aaron Rodgers has a mere 20:1 TD:INT ratio. Even Darrelle Revis couldn’t prevent an A-Rod-to-Jordy Nelson TD laser. The Green Bay defense hasn’t looked soft lately.
The Seahawks pose the greatest threat to the Packers, for two reasons: 1. Bruce Arians’ Cardinals are fading and in big trouble with Drew Stanton at quarterback. 2. It is now December, and Pete Carroll and the defending champions can smell it again.
Just ask Marshawn Lynch (on second thought, don’t waste your time). The Cardinals are hearing footsteps, and are suddenly in danger of not only surrendering the division to the Seahawks, but with the Cowboys and Lions lurking for wild-card spots, missing the playoffs entirely. Tony Romo fighting the perceptions and a back that could leave him diminished down the stretch will be a compelling storyline.
The Eagles will be dangerous as long as Chip Kelly is calling plays. LeSean McCoy is who we thought he was, but do you trust Mark Sanchez? If you do, it’s because you remember the bigger the game, the better he played in the playoffs … in 2009 and ’10, before he buttfumbled his way out of Rex Ryan’s loving embrace. Don’t underestimate the importance of kicker Cody Parkey (nine field goals in 10 tries in his last two games).
If Drew Brees can throw 5 TD passes on the road without once targeting tight end Jimmy Graham, no one will care if Sean Payton and Rob Ryan exchange eye gouges on the sidelines, the Saints will hold off the Falcons. Wide receiver Kenny Stills has filled the deep threat shoes of injured rookie Brandin Cooks.
AFC
A new X-factor has emerged in the Peyton Manning-Tom Brady Armageddon in the inevitable AFC Championship game. His name is C.J. Anderson, and he is a raging bull with fresh, frisky legs who has given Manning the cold-weather option he will need, especially if the Broncos are forced to defend their AFC crown in the unfriendly confines of Gillette Stadium. A running game and a defense — and John Fox has one this time — travel well. Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick, and he’ll be getting pass rusher Chandler Jones back just in time.
The rest of the field is headed by Andrew Luck and the Colts. Luck is the Maddest Bomber since Daryle Lamonica, especially now that rookie Donte Moncrief has supplanted Hakeem Nicks as his No. 3 receiver.
The Andy Reid Chiefs, playing for Eric Berry, are a tough out, but they simply don’t have the firepower to stand up to the big boys.
The Chargers are alive because Philip Rivers won’t let them die — especially with Keenan Allen resurfacing as a Go-To Guy.
The AFC North, filled with mediocrities, is a crapshoot. Andy Dalton has that playoff monkey on his back in Cincinnati. Remember when the Ravens and Steelers owned intimidating defenses? No more. The Browns are still breathing, but Mike Pettine faces the most critical decision of his rookie season: Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel, a.k.a. Johnny Football, a.k.a. Johnny Cleveland. Mercifully, John Idzik will not be involved in the dreaded “collective decision.”
Prediction
Packers-Seahawks in the NFC Championship. Broncos-Patriots in the AFC Championship.
Packers-Patriots in the Super Bowl … unless it’s Packers-Broncos.
Check back with me when the playoffs begin.