The day before every major event, The Post’s MMA expert Marc Raimondi breaks down what you have to know in order to intelligently wager on the fights.
On Saturday, the UFC is in Chicago for UFC on FOX 6. Demetrious Johnson will defend his flyweight title against John Dodson, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson makes his return to the Octagon for perhaps the final time and Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone face off in a huge lightweight contender matchup.
Here are the lines from 5dimes:
MAIN CARD (FOX, 8 p.m.)
Demetrious Johnson (-220) vs. John Dodson (+180)
Glover Teixeira (-335) vs. Quinton Jackson (+275)
Anthony Pettis (-125) vs. Donald Cerrone (+105)
Erik Koch (-155) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+135)
PRELIMS (FX, 5 p.m.)
TJ Grant (-120) vs. Matt Wiman (+100)
Clay Guida (-245) vs. Hatsu Hioki (+205)
Pascal Krauss (-250) vs. Mike Stumpf (+210)
Ryan Bader (-525) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (+415)
Mike Russow (-185) vs. Shawn Jordan (+160)
Rafael Natal (-255) vs. Sean Spencer (+215)
PRELIMS (Facebook, 4:30 p.m.)
Simeon Thoresen (-240) vs. David Mitchell (+200)
Dodson presents a whole new challenge for Johnson – someone with serious knockout power which is a rarity in the flyweight division. Dodson is also extremely athletic and strong. He’s a good wrestler. Johnson, though, is a better technical striker, an excellent grappler and such a master at evading attacks that it’s hard to believe anyone in the division will beat him for quite some time. He’s the king of the little guys in the UFC and I like him a lot in the parlay, especially with these fairly low odds.
Teixeira says he’s going to trade punches standing up with Jackson. I don’t believe him and neither does “Rampage.” As exciting as that would be, Teixeira is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He’d be silly to play to Jackson’s strength. If he does take down “Rampage,” and I expect him to, you can feel safe with him in your parlay. Even if he doesn’t, he might be a better striker than Jackson right now, too.
Pettis-Cerrone promises to be a “Fight of the Year” candidate and for that reason you want to stay far, far away. There’s too much unpredictably between the two athletic strikers. And little reason to believe it’ll go the full three rounds.
Lamas is a slight underdog and not as well known as Koch. But he presents a difficult challenge because of his wrestling and jiu-jitsu prowess. Koch is a good striker, but the last time he faced as good a wrestler as Lamas it was Chad Mendes and he lost a decision. Put a little something on Lamas as a straight bet.
Wiman is forever an underdog and although it is just a slight one here. He has more tools than Grant, so put some action on him as a straight bet. If you’re looking for a little bigger ’dog on this card, take a peek at Jordan. The odds aren’t huge against him, but his wrestling makes him relatively safe.
As for the parlay, we already have Johnson and Teixeira. Add Guida and Bader to that and you have a nice four-fight set. Wrestling and athleticism will be the biggest factor in both of those fights.
BEST BETS
POT: $908.12 (+$133.12)
(Original pot: $1,000)
Parlay
Johnson, Teixeira, Guida, Bader
$100 to win $216.63
Straight bets
Lamas over Koch
$20 to win $27
Wiman over Grant
$20 to win $20
Upset special
Jordan over Russow
$20 to win $32
LOOKING BACK
UFC on FX 7 marked a nice little comeback. Despite a bizarre turn of events between Yuri Alcantara and Pedro Nobre, we hit the parlay. That fight was called a no contest, but since Alcantara didn’t lose, we were awarded the payout.
Other than Vitor Belfort upsetting Michael Bisping, everything worked out – even upset special Nik Lentz over Diego Nunes. Gabrial Gonzaga did his part, submitting Ben Rothwell.