CURTAINS! With James Harrison likely returning, the Steelers will exact revenge on Joe Flacco and the Ravens on Sunday, Dave Blezow predicts.
It all seems a little too tidy– the Patriots having the worst statistical defense in the NFL; the Giants possessing the same quality of pass rush that tortured Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLII; the generous spread well north of a touchdown.
Just know, though, that Bill Belichick has had 3 1/2 years to stew about what the Giants did to his team in the desert, and remember how many teams have gone into Foxborough thinking they may have the Patriots licked — and trash-talked them, even — and were sadly mistaken.
The pick: Patriots -9.
Jets (+2) over BILLS: If you believe the Jets already have survived the biggest crisis of their season and still are destined for big things, then you take them here in the face of their post-bye history under Rex Ryan and the Bills’ formidable combination of sacks and picks on defense and Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson.
COLTS (+7) over Falcons: Hey, remember Rams-Saints? Also, though the Colts have been beaten down to 0-8, they are just 0-3 at home by a combined 15 points. Falcons are coming off the bye after two wins in a row, a veritable 2011-NFL-style witch’s brew.
SAINTS (-8) over Buccaneers: Spread’s uncomfortably high for a quality divisional matchup, but Saints have scored 30, 40 and 62 in their three home games, are coming off an unconscionable loss at winless St. Louis, and have double-revenge motive for Bucs’ 2010 sweep.
Browns (+11) over TEXANS: Thanks, Gary Kubiak, for kicking the field goal for last week’s late cover. But this line’s a little too far north of sanity, considering the Browns have lost just once by more than this number and can play some defense, even if they are almost totally devoid of weapons.
Dolphins (+4) over CHIEFS: Big letdown spot for the Chiefs after Monday night rivalry win over the Chargers. KC has a -6.0 points per game differential and is 4-3, while Miami is -8.4 and is 0-7. That’s why the spread’s so small.
49ers (-3 1/2) over REDSKINS: Not sure whether to buy the 49ers’ 6-1 record built despite a -20 yards per game differential, but can’t find a single reason to back a decimated Redskins team that gave up 10 sacks and scored no points vs. the Bills in Toronto.
Seahawks (+11 1/2) over COWBOYS: Cowboys need to make amends to make after the no-show loss in Philly. But the Seahawks, also coming off a sizable home loss to the Bengals, are capable of sticking around in this one.
Broncos (+8) over RAIDERS: It’s tough to work in a new starting quarterback during the bye, though one would expect the Raiders to be itchin’ to erase the stench of their 28-0 home loss to the KC. Tim Tebow? He’ll be brutal until he isn’t. Such is today’s NFL.
Bengals (+3) over TITANS: This space doesn’t typically delve too deeply into the team stat rankings but here is one that by midseason should have some meaning: The Titans are No. 32 in rushing and the Bengals No. 2 in stopping the run.
CARDINALS (-2 1/2) over Rams: Able to shop on the bargain rack thanks to Kevin Kolb’s injury status, combined with the Cards’ colossal blown lead at the Ravens and the Rams’ out-of-nowhere victory over the Saints.
CHARGERS (+5 1/2) over Packers: Those were two rough road games for Philip Rivers and the Chargers, but am willing to take a shot with them as fairly sizable dogs at home, where they are 3-0.
STEELERS (-3) over Ravens: Joe Flacco was roused from his game-and-a-half coma to lead one of the great comebacks of our time last week. The Steelers’ defense sends Flacco back into the fog in payback for the opening day 35-7 blowout.
MONDAY NIGHT
EAGLES (-7 1/2) over Bears: The Eagles are averaging an astounding 449 yards per game and are 3-4. Bears are fine bunch, particularly on defense, and this spread’s an insult, but if you think the Eagles are finally ready to take off, then wind them up and let them go and don’t worry about the number.
BEST BETS: Steelers, Jets, Chargers.
LAST WEEK: 9-4 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Steelers (Lock record 6-2 this season).