In today’s Post I wrote this column about the lurking horror for the Yankees of replacing Mariano Rivera. Imagine what it is going to feel like around the team when one day they look up at the scoreboard and Rivera is throwing 84 mph or his ball is no longer cutting with any ferocity or his pinpoint control abandons him or some part of his body breaks down in a significant way or he goes into Joe Girardi’s office and says he simply does not have the passion for the work any longer.
Rivera is the fifth-oldest player in the majors. Boston’s Tim Wakefield is 44. The White Sox’s Omar Vizquel turns 44 in April. Washington’s Matt Stairs 43. Texas’ Arthur Rhodes is 41, one month older than Rivera
But here is yet another remarkable fact about Rivera: He is arguably as good as ever and showing few signs of losing effectiveness (so maybe he really can pitch until he is 50). Over the past three years, Rivera has a 1.64 ERA. It is not only the best in the majors for that period (minimum 150 appearances), but it is the best three-year run at any time in Rivera’s Hall of Fame career. Think about that, his age 38-40 seasons have been better – at least ERA wise – than any other three-year run in his career.
The second-best was a 1.66 he put up from 2003-05 (his age 33-35 seasons). He put up a 1.71 from 2004-06 (34-36) and a 1.87 from 1997-99 (27-29). The only other time he was under 2.00 for a three-year period was his first three seasons as a full-time closer, 1996-98, when Rivera posted a 1.98 ERA.
So who will replace Rivera when he no longer closes for the Yankees? The natural reaction would be to look toward Rafael Soriano. He is here now, after all. But, remember, he has opt-out clauses after both the 2011 and 2012 seasons. So if suddenly the Yankees needed him to close, you can expect that Soriano and his agent, Scott Boras, would push them to a new deal.
Also, keep in mind though Soriano is 31, he has yet to have three straight healthy, successful seasons in the majors (he will be trying that this year). Also, temperamentally, there are big questions about him. One of the secrets of Rivera’s success, especially in New York, is that he is imperturbable, drama-free. His teammates love him (not the case for Soriano in his prior two stops, Atlanta and Tampa Bay), trust him.
For some reason, I think Rivera’s first successor will end up being a converted started from within the system, someone like Phil Hughes or Dellin Betances or Andrew Brackman. It is just a hunch. But when I asked Brian Cashman about it, the GM at first said he is worrying about starting pitching now and not who the closer might be down the line. But then he added, “My aim the past few years has been to add pitching depth and pitching depth into the organization for whatever is down the road.”
I looked around the clubhouse the other day and I thought I was onto something. If the Yankees were willing to catch Jorge Posada, they could put out a lineup of nine players with 100 career homers or more: Posada, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez as the DH.
So I wondered if that was rare. I turned to my favorite source on this kind of subject, Bob Waterman at Elias. And, well, it is not that rare. Heck, the Yankees did it last Aug. 9 vs. Boston: Jeter, Swisher, Teixeira, A-Rod, Cano, Posada, Marcus Thames, Austin Kearns and Granderson. And here is the kicker, Lance Berkman pinch-hit for Thames and he also was well over the century mark.