Whatifsports.com’s NFL simulation engine bases its weekly predictions on the statistical inputs of thousands of NFL games.
Those inputs are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth chart and statistically based player ranking. The simulation engine generates detailed predictions including the home team’s chances of winning (Home Win %), average score and comprehensive box score.
Last season, Whatif predicted 7 of 11 2009 playoff games (63.6-percent) – it also accurately predicted New Orleans to win the Super Bowl.
One team had three starting quarterbacks in its first five games. The other had one of the NFL’s worst rushing attacks until a sixth-round rookie came to the rescue. These are not characteristics that usually correlate into holding the Lombardi Trophy at season’s end.
Yet upon further examination, one would be hard-pressed to find more suitable Super Bowl candidates than the Steelers and Packers.
The respective defenses held adversaries to conference-lows on the scoreboard; Pittsburgh conceded just 14.5 points and Green Bay was just as frugal with a 15 ppg figure. Dick LeBeau’s unit did its best Steel Curtain impersonation, stifling opposing rushing games to the tune of 62.8 yards a game. The Packers defense (114.9 rushing yards per game) surrendered a meager six rushing touchdowns and held opposing quarterbacks to an NFL-best 67.2 rating. Second on that list? You guessed it: the Steelers, as Troy Polamalu and company posted a similarly impressive mark of 73.1.
Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers top the list among the younger quarterbacks in the NFL, relying on their mobility to make and extend plays. They also own two of the stronger cannons in the league, highlighted by 10 passes for Rodgers of 40 yards or longer and eight for Big Ben.
So who wins Super Bowl XLV? According to the WhatIfSports NFL simulation engine which correctly predicted this matchup, the Steelers come out ahead
52.5 percent of the time by an average score of 21-20. The Packers have had an amazing run as the NFC’s sixth seed. But it appears Mike Tomlin’s squad will be bringing home a seventh ring to the Steel City.