LOUISVILLE, Ky. — John Sadler, the hottest trainer in California, is making his first major run at the Kentucky Derby this week with the best speed horse in the country, Sidney’s Candy.
The question on everyone’s mind is: Will the Candy man outrun them all — or will he get burned off in the attempt?
The Derby result may well hinge on the answer to that question. Sidney’s Candy has won three straight graded races, including the Santa Anita Derby, going wire to wire. No horse has put a head in front of him.
That’s how he will run Saturday, but at least five other speed horses in the race will go with him. Who will survive?
“None of them,” said Rick Dutrow Jr., the New Yorker who trained Big Brown to win the 2008 Derby and will saddle longshot Homeboykris this week. “The speed’s gonna die and we’re gonna pick ’em off.”
Sadler is non-committal.
“We’ll have to wait for the draw [today],” he said. “The draw is going to be very, very important for tactical reasons. We’ll form our strategy after the draw.”
What Sadler thinks is that Bob Baffert is going to send his speed demon Conveyance winging from the gate to act as a “rabbit,” to hook Sidney’s Candy early and set the race up for his favored Lookin at Lucky.
“Conveyance will function as a rabbit,” said Sadler, “but I don’t think Mr. Baffert wants to say it.”
These two trainers have been playing cat-and-mouse all week. Baffert insists that Sidney’s Candy is not only the horse to beat, but should be the morning-line favorite because he beat Lookin At Lucky by five lengths in the Santa Anita Derby.
Sadler, equally insistent, said Lookin At Lucky should be favorite because he’s “very good, very consistent.”
“I’ve been watching that horse all winter because he trains near me,” he said. “I know everything about him. He’s the horse to beat in here.”
Sidney’s Candy was sired by Candy Ride, the Argentine import who was brought to the U.S. by weight-loss queen Jenny Craig and her late husband, Sid, and retired unbeaten in eight starts, including the $1 million Pacific Classic.
Jenny Craig named Sidney’s Candy after her husband, who died two years ago.
“This is a very good horse,” said Sadler, who himself is riding a streak. He not only won the Santa Anita Derby, but he won the Arkansas Derby with Line of David, the Santa Anita Oaks with Crisp and, last Saturday, the Derby Trial with Hurricane Ike.
But, as always, there is a catch. Sidney’s Candy has never raced on dirt. All six of his races have been on Southern California’s synthetic tracks. Who knows how he will handle Churchill’s dirt surface.
Sadler is encouraged because the horse has had two workouts at Churchill, both splendid, including a 5 furlong drill in :59.4.
Sidney’s Candy will be ridden by Joe Talamo, the 19-year-old kid star of the business.
“He’s a phenom,” said Sadler. “He has a chance to be great. He’s a nice young man and he fits the horse.”
Ironically, one of Sidney’s Candy’s speed rivals in the Derby will be Sadler’s other horse, Line of David. This colt has also won his last three races — two on grass and the Arkansas Derby on dirt — going wire to wire on the front end.
“We took a shot sending him to Arkansas,” Sadler said. “We thought he would make a nice turf horse, but we thought we would give him one shot on the dirt.”
The result surprised even Sadler. He won at 17-1, beating two other Kentucky Derby runners in Super Saver and Dublin. He’ll be an even bigger price on Saturday.
There are a lot of negatives surrounding the Candy man. He’s a speed freak running against speed freaks, going on dirt for the first time and being ridden by a teenager, all at fairly cramped odds of not much more than 5-1. But these days, no one underestimates what John Sadler can do with a horse.
POSTSCRIPT: Dutrow, holding court in jovial spirits at his barn, suggested I take a $20 double with his filly Amen Hallelujah in the Oaks and Homeboykris in the Derby. “We’ve got a live one in the Oaks, a live one in the Derby at a big price, we’re all on a high note, we’re happy, babe,” he said. “If we win the Oaks, you won’t have to bet the one in the Derby.”