Box Office: Could ‘Paranormal’ upset ‘This Is It’?

Variety, not generally known for sticking its neck out with box-office predictions, today is gingerly raising the possibility that the weekend’s only wide opener, Sony’s “This Is It,” might come in at No. 2 if an upset is pulled by the surprising incumbent, Paramount’s “Paranormal Activity.” The trade paper cites the “sold but not glowing” opening day take of  $7.4 million, which it says is under industry expectations for a “fan-driven title.” Though most three-day forecasts for “This Is It” are in the $30-40 million range, there really isn’t a historical model to project from here, since this collage of badly-shot Michael Jackson rehearsal footage and lots of backstage filler isn’t a true concert film and it isn’t really a documentary either. The reviews have been surprisingly (to me) strong, rating 80 percent positive at Rotten Tomatoes. I gave it one star the other day, and though I’m in the minority and Mr. Big Thumbs gave Jacko his only four-star rave, I’m hardly the only critic to have panned “This Is It” as some readers have suggested in the collection of letters posted below, as well as the comments appended to my review. Over at Metacritic, where reviews are assigned numbers on a 100-point scale (one star out four is 25 points), the flick is averaging a 67 points from mainstream critics. Besides me, it’s drawing 25-point pans from Chris Richards of the Washington Post, who agrees with me almost point by point, and Aidin Viziri of the San Francisco Chronicle. Metacritic assigns a grade of 60 to Manhola Darghis of the New York Times, which does not give numbers or letters for its reviews. But though her tone is more carefully polite than mine — hey, it’s the Times — she’s making many of the same points as I am, including the use of the word “morbid.” Which this whole thing is, whether people want to admit it or not. How appropriate it’s going out over Halloween weekend.