Opinion

Test trouble

City schoolkids may be making progress — but compared to what?

Federal test scores this week cast serious doubt on state results that suggest big gains in New York, including in the city. The feds say just 40 percent of fourth graders cut it in math — not 80 percent, as Albany claims. And only 34 percent of eighth graders are up to snuff — versus 87 percent, in the state’s account.

Worse, New York’s fourth graders are actually below their level of two years ago on the federal exam, despite huge “gains” on the state test. (City kids’ national test results are due next month.)

Actually, the state numbers have been suspect for a while: No one seriously believes that 80 percent of students statewide are learning enough to succeed.

Still, a more comprehensive breakdown of state results this week gives plenty of reason for city kids to cheer.

Going by actual average test scores, the five boroughs ranked in the bottom six counties in the state in 2002. This year, Queens kids are in the top quarter of all counties, with Staten Island not far behind. Manhattan, Brooklyn and The Bronx have also posted big gains.

So Chancellor Joel Klein is right to say city kids are doing better than kids statewide. But how much better remains unclear.

Meanwhile, a new RAND study vindicates one of Mayor Bloomberg’s more controversial reforms: ending “social promotion” for failing kids. The study found that holding them back boosts their performance and spurs no ill emotional effects.

Still, New Yorkers need a clear, reliable measure of student achievement.

When state and national testing methods produce such starkly discrepant pictures, folks logically conclude that one — if not both — must be wrong.

It hardly instills confidence.