1. I have spoken to many Met officials, including GM Omar Minaya, and each has told me essentially the same strategy: That they would like to add a quality starter to place behind Johan Santana in the rotation and go to camp giving Jonathan Niese a chance to be the No. 5 starter. Minaya likens the plan to what happened with Mike Pelfrey last year, when Pelfrey assumed the No. 5 starter role, largely because Orlando Hernandez was hurt. This means the Mets essentially want Niese to be the No. 5 starter. And I think this is a mistake.
Niese might turn out to be a fine starter. But if Niese is in the majors that means the Mets are going to have little depth at Triple-A when the inevitable injuries hit. They are again going to have to go to the Nelson Figueroa/Brandon Knight types when depth is needed.
And let’s see why that depth is likely to be needed: Let’s call Santana a given as an iron man. But John Maine needed a shoulder procedure after the season and Pelfrey went way beyond his career high for innings in 2008, which is often a marker for a regression the following season. Even if we give the Mets another high-end innings eater such as Derek Lowe (who I think ends up in Boston), I still think they should find another veteran innings eater. We are not talking about spending big here. Just try to get an arm who can consistently give six-plus innings at league average results, and keep Niese at Triple-A for depth.
Niese – if he deserves it – will definitely get his chance in the majors to prove he belongs so that the transition in 2010 is easier. Remember he has just three starts in the majors.
2. So who are we talking about here for that No. 5 starting job? Veterans such as Jason Marquis (Cubs), Jarrod Washburn (Mariners) and Nate Robertson (Tigers) should be very available from teams looking to cut their salaries. Remember, we are looking for dependability here for the back – not the front – of the rotation. Maybe free agent Jon Garland’s price will fall to a reasonable range on a one- or two-year deal. Perhaps in the coming weeks we will see if the White Sox are looking for a good return for Javier Vazquez or if they are desperate to move his contract (two years at $23 million left) and will take a poor package simply to lop the dollars from their payroll.
The Cubs, for example, are trying hard to obtain Jake Peavy and further deepen their already strong rotation. If they are able to do that, they might be willing to essentially give Marquis and his $9.875 million 2009 salary away. Or perhaps this is a place for the Mets to park some of their unsavory contracts. How about Scott Schoeneweis and Marlon Anderson (total of $4.75 million due next year) for Marquis? That would save the Cubs $5.1 million and essentially give the Mets a dependable fifth starter for $5.1 million.
3. The Mets have played the back-and-forth game a lot when it comes to Francisco Rodriguez vs. Brian Fuentes, if they decide to go to the top of the food chain for a free-agent closer. And they keep coming back to one undisputable fact: K-Rod is 6 1-2 years younger. And one fact many of their executives believe in their gut: They are sure Rodriguez has a bit of the ham in him, and would not be overwhelmed by New York. They are far less certain that Fuentes is a New York kind of guy.