TODAY
Vikings (+7) over GIANTS: With Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward unlikely to see action, RB Reuben Droughns steps up to carry Big Blue’s rushing load. Giants schedule is less threatening than it once appeared (with Bears and Eagles enduring down seasons), but Minny D and dedicated running game (especially if Adrian Peterson actually returns to action) make this foe a tough out.
Titans (pick) over BENGALS: Now that Vince Young is in the position of having to win games on the field to cover, the ATS road isn’t quite so smooth. Again, so much hinges on the health of Titans all-world DT Albert Haynesworth. If his hamstring’s not combat-ready, even Cincy might be able to do some good on the ground.
Bills (+71/2) over JAGUARS: Acquaintances who make but rare forays into NFL side speculation were all over Buffalo early this week, armed with the knowledge that (a) no team is as bad as they might appear while playing the Patriots, and (b) Jack Del Rio’s management style frequently makes the apparently easy look difficult, whenever the Jags are favored to this extent. Tight!
Raiders (+51/2) over CHIEFS: Kay Cee’s October win in Oaktown was its ninth straight in this divisional series. More of the same wouldn’t surprise, but with Chiefs down to ex-Louisville rookie RB Kolby Smith, following Priest Holmes’ re-retirement, reluctant to lay this thick a spread. Effects of turnover-happy Daunte Culpepper and a host of teammates eager to take stupid penalties are minimized when you’re a dog of this size.
Texans (+31/2) over BROWNS: Attempting momentum reads within NFL matchups involving middle-of-the-pack talents can mislead as often as not, but the Matt Schaub/Andre Johnson combination is irresistible as underdogs, pitted against Cleveland’s shaky secondary. Texans RB Ahman Green’s making the party would be a bonus.
RAMS (+3) over Seahawks: St. Louis’ season already is a smoking ruin, but with Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson having synchronized their watches, Rams figure to keep pace with Shaun Alexander-less ‘Hawks, especially given field-goal head start. Seattle’s “need” motivation is nebulous, since as Arizona continues to play to its potential, ‘Hawks will be deleted from postseason picture regardless.
PANTHERS (+3) over Saints: Midweek practice mishap makes it look grim for stud Carolina wideout Steve Smith for yet another week. But remain unsold on concept of New Orleans as traveling chalk against respected John Fox entity with tradition of success. It’s hardly Fox’s fault that injuries are unsettling respected Panthers ship.
Redskins (+3) over BUCS: Some folks I respect (magicians who can make a line rise all by themselves) are all over Tampa in this matchup. Even so, prefer my view of this game, which isn’t as much a ‘Skins endorsement as a call for the Bucs to return to earth. Tampa’s led a charmed life in the turnover-ratio department this season, and such good fortune is unlikely to sustain indefinitely.
CARDS (-101/2) over 49ers: There’s some good technical stuff out there on Frisco, but San Fran’s been a frequent darling of the trend-vestites this season, and, with Miami, ranks as an epic disaster area of NFL 2007. Tough to trust Cards laying double digits, but they’re legitimate NFC playoff timber given current senior-conference landscape.
Broncos (+21/2) over BEARS: This is the kind of spot in which Rex Grossman has had problems ever since the Bears defense (minus vital pieces) has been unable to provide advantageous field position with sufficient frequency. Tough call, but shade visitor, which maintains proud history of sharp road efforts as underdogs when in playoff-chase mode.
Ravens (+91/2) over CHARGERS: Surely, an acid test for our long-held anti-Norv Turner statistical theories, right? Off a rare offensive explosion and crossing three time zones, shouldn’t Ravens be crying “Nevermore?” Not so long as Turner’s troops continue to underperform as substantial favorites when off bad losses. Todd Heap’s participation in aid of Kyle Boller would help, but something’s seriously amiss in Diego, and the only thing that’s markedly different from ’06 is the identity of the head coach.
PATRIOTS (-22) over Eagles: Donovan McNabb’s projected absence, now confirmed, drove this line (previously established in the mid-teens in Vegas futures action) over the three-TD threshold. What, us worry? Defensive stalwarts for the NFL’s “Gold Standard” franchise (ask them!) are showing their age – and that’s a death sentence against Bill Belichick’s relentless offense.
TOMORROW NIGHT
STEELERS (-16) over Dolphins: Sea Mammals’ measure of desperation in their winless state cuts a narrow swath stacked up against the Steelers’ situation: playing at home on a Monday night, on the heels of a loss. Any Ricky Williams contribution looms roughly equivalent to a dike up against a tsunami in grand scheme of things. Miami tries to stay healthy, while checking out what QB John Beck may be capable of – and awaiting a visit from Jets.