Making an accurate morning line for this year’s Kentucky Derby, just 12 days away on May 5, is a daunting task, beginning with: Who will be the favorite?
The prevailing opinion is that unbeaten Curlin, winner of his three races by 123/4, 51/4 and 10½ lengths, will be the betting choice after being heavily favored at 7-2 in the final pool of the Derby Future Wager.
But by post time, the public will have had three weeks since Curlin’s Arkansas Derby to absorb the facts that 1) no horse who did not race as a 2-year-old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882; and 2) no horse with just three lifetime starts has won the Derby since the filly Regret in 1915.
These streaks are more than just historical oddities. There are reasons why such lightly raced horses don’t win the Derby. First, they lack the seasoning (and please, don’t tell me that’s only for steaks) to contend against a full field of top-class, battle-tested opponents going a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time. Think of a double-A minor leaguer being thrown into the World Series.
Second, given the economics of racing that demand a quick return on investment, if a horse did not race at 2, you can bet there was a physical problem or two holding him back. Those ailments have a way of resurfacing in the heat of the Derby. Remember Pulpit, fourth at 5-1 in 1997, who never raced again?
*
Now that Street Sense has shown, in his races before and since the Breeders’ Cup, he’s on a par with the other good horses in his crop, how do you explain his electrifying stretch run to win last year’s Juvenile by a shocking 10 lengths – the second biggest margin in Cup history?
*
Nobiz Like Shobiz is the first horse to top the Derby Dozen from beginning to end since Point Given in 2001. Bob Baffert’s “Big Red Train,” racing on achy wheels, finished fifth as the 9-5 favorite but went on to win the Preakness, Belmont Stakes, Haskell and Travers.
*
Seven of the previous eight winners of Saturday’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland went on to run in the Derby, including Charismatic, who won in 1999, and Proud Citizen, second in 2002. Both colts were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, and if Lukas’ Starbase, second in the Lexington at 36-1, had won instead, giving him enough graded-stakes earnings to crack the 20-horse starting line-up, he’d be Derby-bound too.
But as of yesterday, Slew’s Tizzy, who won the Lexington by 3½ lengths at 40-1, was an iffy proposition. The victory was just the second in six starts for the Tiznow colt, one of few winners to lead gate-to-wire going two turns over Keeneland’s quirky Polytrack.
“Our philosophy is that we don’t race horses back in two weeks,” said Greg Fox, who trains Slew’s Tizzy for Joseph LaCombe. “Joe and I don’t have to make a decision right now, so we’re going to wait and see.”