Some observations from the first week of the NFL season:
A serious downgrade is in order for LaMont Jordan. If you have a deep backfield, deal this guy now before he hits rock bottom. The Raiders offense is going nowhere . . . You might want to par down your expectations for Larry Johnson. Heâs unlikely to post numbers worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. But he should still be a top-5 RB. However, especially with Trent Green out, defenses will focus almost solely on Johnson. Heâs still rack up some numbers, just not with the frequency we previously thought.
Some observations from the first week of the NFL season:
Step back
A serious downgrade is in order for LaMont Jordan. If you have a deep backfield, deal this guy now before he hits rock bottom. The Raiders offense is going nowhere . . . You might want to par down your expectations for Larry Johnson. Heâs unlikely to post numbers worthy of the No. 1 overall pick. But he should still be a top-5 RB. However, especially with Trent Green out, defenses will focus almost solely on Johnson. Heâs still rack up some numbers, just not with the frequency we previously thought.
No rush
Samkon Gado will not resurrect the Texansâ running game. But if you must have a Houston RB, he is likely the best option in the long term . . . Donât give up on the Lions offense, specifically Roy Williams. He still get plenty of looks from QB Jon Kitna, who is much more capable than was Joey Harrington . . . Donât buy into Chad Pennington just yet. His Week 1 performance was impressive, but it was vs. the Titans. Weâre waiting to see him do it a couple of weeks in a row before we dump Chris Simms or Brad Johnson to make Pennington our backup QB. But if youâre desperate, he is worth a waiver wire flier.
Feed to the Birds
The Carolina defense isnât nearly as bad as it looked in Week 1 . . . The Carolina offense will struggle without Steve Smith, but expect Keyshawn Johnson and DeShaun Foster to have better outings than Week 1, without or without their Pro Bowl wideout . . . The Falcons running game is still solid. But Warrick Dunn is only valuable in yardage bonus leagues. In TD-only leagues, heâs not going to get you much . . . Michael Vick is still a backup fantasy QB . . . Simms and the Buccaneers offense isnât nearly as bad as it looked vs. the Ravens . . . The Ravens defense is still solid and will have huge games against young QBs and mediocre offenses.
Hello again
Reminder: Donovan McNabb was a great fantasy QB before Terrell Owens. It looks like he will be again. His favorite target is likely to be Donte Stallworth. If you drafted him, you got a steal. If you didnât, youâll likely have to overpay for him now. He has the potential to be this yearâs Steve Smith . . . Brett Favre should be an emergency fantasy QB only.
Keeping up with Jones
Jaguars WR Matt Jones got plenty of looks from QB Byron Leftwich. But when they got in the red zone, Reggie Williams was his TD target. Jones is worth a trade if you have a solid bench commodity to offer. Williams might be on your waiver wire . . . Donât worry about the Tony Romo talk in Dallas until Bledsoe loses several games the way he did in Week 1.
Still the Manning
Peyton Manning still looks like the top fantasy QB, but expect teams with secondaries stronger than the Giantsâ to put more pressure on him, especially without a proven running back. That could cause an increase in his INTs this season . . . Give Carson Palmer a few weeks to get his rhythm back, then he may again challenge Peyton for top QB honors . . . Kerry Collins wonât last as the starter in Tennessee. The Titans are bad, and Collins doesnât know the offense yet. By the time he gets acclimated, the Titans will be out of the playoff picture. Expect to see Vince Young in the first half of the season. Drop Collins today with no regrets.
Out on a limb
Deion Branch wasnât a fantasy icon in New England with Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Donât expect him to become one in Seattle either. But he will be a servicable bye-week option . . . Najeh Davenport never had the opportunity to flourish in Green Bay â be it injuries or his spot on the depth chart behind Ahman Green. He may eventually cut into Willie Parkerâs TDs, but weâll wait and see before we devalue Parker.
Keep an eye out
There are likely no players on your waiver wire after Week 1 that we think will blossom into every-week starters just yet. But if youâre looking for depth or want to roll the dice, hereâs a couple of guys that might warrant a roster spot: Titans RB Travis Henry; Jets QB Chad Pennington; Jaguars WR Reggie Williams; Vikings WR Troy Williamson; Falcons WR Michael Jenkins; Jets TE Chris Baker; Chargers DF.
dloftis@nypost.com