THE biggest threat to the Mets has the fewest homers in the NL, a 2006 dossier that includes 13 losses in 14 games to begin the second half and a manager best known as an October fool.
And, oh yeah, the Dodgers are not just a threat to the Mets in 2006. They are a threat to what the Mets could so recently envision being an era when they would dominate the National League. Los Angeles has the dynamic duo of financial resources and, perhaps, the majors’ best young talent base.
“The Dodgers are a big-market team with a $100 million-plus payroll and they have better young players than the Mets have,” said an NL GM.
“Now [on] the Mets’ left side of the infield [Jose Reyes and David Wright] are two of the best players in the game. But the Mets don’t have depth in pitching and the pitching is old. But they do have the wherewithal to sign pitching every year.” In 2006, at the least, the Mets were cruising along under the belief that they were far superior to the rest of the NL competition. But as our NL GM said, “The Dodgers might have a better team than the Mets, right now.” If they do, it is because first-year GM Ned Colletti has assembled an intriguing, volatile mix that has produced intriguing and volatile results; those 13 losses in 14 games followed immediately by 17 wins in 18 games that launched Los Angeles into first place in the NL West.
The roster recipe begins with a talented group of veterans with tainted reputations: Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Kenny Lofton, Jeff Kent, Nomar Garciaparra and J.D. Drew.
Then you add a healthy amount of that prospect base. At present, 20 percent of the roster is comprised of rookies performing wonderfully:
starter Chad Billingsley, set-up man Jonathon Broxton, closer Takashi Saito, catcher Russ Martin and outfielder Andre Ethier.
The final ingredients to this stew came when Colletti steadfastly refused to believe the team was dead early in the second half. “I knew 1-13 was an aberration,” Colletti said. So, he made five acquisitions in the final eight days before the July 31 deadline, notably obtaining Wilson Betemit, Julio Lugo and Greg Maddux.
In explaining why this group could threaten the Mets in 2006, the NL GM said, “They have depth. They have a good No. 1, 2 and 3 starter right now [Penny, Lowe and Maddux]. The only hiccup is the bullpen and it is fine from the eighth inning on. They don’t have the power the Mets have, but they have a great deal of team speed and a great deal of confidence.” As opposed to the Mets, however, the Dodgers are not yet even a playoff lock. Even with all the recent winning, they entered yesterday leading the NL West by just three games. Grady Little has done a wonderful job coalescing all the disparate parts. But this is the man who froze in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, sticking with Pedro Martinez against the Yankees and becoming the managing version of Bill Buckner in New England.
So he is going to have to prove he will not brainlock again in big spots.
The Dodgers are unlikely to have a 20-homer hitter. For now, everyone is thinking team-first embodied by Lugo. He is a free agent at season’s end, who is going to get big money to play shortstop (if you are betting man, go with the Red Sox). Yet, he has accepted playing five positions, so far (left right, short, third and second) to accommodate overflow talent.
And we will have to see how the young talent handles the length and stress of the full season. But, so far, the Dodgers were 49-30 when Martin started. Ethier (.333) might just win a batting title if he accumulates enough plate appearances. Broxton (68 Ks, 55.1 IP) and Saito (13 Svs, 77 Ks, 58.1 IP) have helped compensate for the season-long loss of closer Eric Gagne. And Billingsley (4-3, 3.16 ERA) has deepened the rotation.
And what should scare the Mets and the whole NL is how much more is on the way. Matt Kemp and James Loney already have helped this year, and Andy LaRoche, Scott Elbert, Tony Abreu, Chin-lung Hu and Blake Dewitt are not far away. It is enough to make the rest of the NL Dodger blue.
Joel Sherman’s e-mail address is joel.sherman@ nypost.com. “Birth of a Dynasty,” his 10-year retrospective examining how the Yankees soared to the 1996 championship, is available in bookstores everywhere.
DOWN THE LINE
The Roberto Alomar trade did not work out for either the Mets or Indians, but now the two key pieces the Mets dealt for the second baseman are belatedly trying to make it with the Nationals. Billy Traber has a 3-1 record in four starts, albeit with a 5.49 ERA. More compelling is Alex Escobar, who was Lastings Milledge not too long ago. A ton of injuries later, Escobar, who turns 28 next month, is getting an opportunity to be Washington’s full-time center fielder, though more hamstring problems are mixed in with his .315 average in his first 73 at-bats.
“Alex has been impressive at times and shown flashes of the potential we all know he’s always had,” Washington GM Jim Bowden said. “Unfortunately, he has just been injury prone most of his career. He will be given a chance a rest the of the year.” The Yankees’ plan for Eric Duncan was to play him at first base this year in hopes that getting away from the rigors of third base would return the lefty swinger to being a top prospect.
But Duncan played so poorly early in the year that he was demoted from Triple- to Double-A and now he is back at third base, GM Brian Cashman said.
Internally, the Yanks are thrilled that they set the record by giving $1 million for an eighth-round pick, Dellin Betances, out of Grand Street Campus High School in Brooklyn. In his first six starts in the Gulf Coast League, Betances had a 1.04 ERA and a .138 batting average against in 17 innings to go along with 19 strikeouts and just six walks. But it is his stuff that has Yankee officials gushing. Their reports have the 6-foot-8, 18-yearold righty hitting 98 mph with his fastball with excellent results, so far, also from his changeup and curve. One Yankee official said, “He is the kind of guy, because of that stuff, that we will begin getting a lot of trade inquiries about next year.” Another player drafted out of high school in June with a Yankee affiliation also is doing well in the GCL. It is no surprise that Don Mattingly’s son, Preston, has stayed around .300 (.292) in his pro debut. But the word was, that opposed to his old man, Preston had speed. And the shortstop’s 12 steals leads his Dodger affiliate’s team.
A National League executive who has watched Philadelphia all year said, “The Phillies are better without [Bobby] Abreu. They have better chemistry, more enthusiasm and they are manufacturing runs better. [Chase] Utley has stepped up to be the leader of the team and that is a good thing and Shane Victorino and David Dellucci are good players who are playing more now.” As for Abreu, the executive said, “He has taken his intensity and focus up to a different level with the Yankees. But once he is comfortable in New York, is this going to be like Shawn Chacon, and he will revert to what he has been?” According to an AL official, the Giants have signed a Dominican third baseman named Angel Villalona for $2.1 million, surprising most of the industry that thought the player would go to either the Mets or Red Sox, who were both pursuing him diligently.