NOW comes the toughest test of President Bush’s Lebanon strategy.
Bush’s goal since the latest outbreak of violence has been to stand by Israel and find a solution that spells defeat for Hezbollah and their sponsors in Iran and Syria.
He pulled world leaders at the G8 summit behind a surprisingly tough anti-Hezbollah resolution, and kept the strong support of Britain’s Tony Blair, who warned just Friday that the terror group risked world “action taken against them.”
Bush’s message was that this is a proxy war – that Iran, via Hezbollah, was taking on Israel as a way of attacking the United States and the West, and had to be stopped.
But the Israeli bombs that yesterday killed at least 54 Lebanese civilians – including at least 37 children – put new pressure on both Israel and the United States for a quick unconditional cease-fire.
That would mean a strategic victory for Hezbollah and Iran – in addition to the propaganda victories they’ve already won.
Israel’s decision yesterday to halt bombing for 48 hours – under pressure from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice – reflects a recognition of the spreading anger and growing urgency to stop the bloodshed.
Now the question is whether Bush can still disarm Hezbollah – under a faster timetable. As Blair put it yesterday, “We have to speed the whole process up.”
Lexington Institute analyst Dan Goure, who served in the Pentagon under Bush’s dad, said, “If this leaves Iran essentially sitting on Israel’s border, it’s a disaster.
“The only thing that stands between this becoming a fiasco for the entire anti-terrorist side is Bush being tough. If he flinches, he goes down with the Israelis.”
The test for Bush is getting the United Nations to approve – and enforce – a settlement forcing Hezbollah to disarm.
A grim-faced Bush yesterday made clear that that is still his goal, saying he remains determined to get “a sustainable peace, a peace that lasts” – meaning a multinational force that disarms Hezbollah, plus a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon.
But the U.N. has tried that before and failed – and not just in the past few years. In 1988, the commander of U.N. observer forces in the area, U.S. Marine Lt. Col. William Higgins, was grabbed by Hezbollah – and tortured to death.