MIAMI – John Kerry won his first debate with President Bush – but the question now is how many votes he’ll win as a result.
Quickie polls showed little if any loss of support for Bush, and Republicans aren’t likely to defect. After all, a Yankee fan doesn’t suddenly start rooting for the Red Sox just because Mariano Rivera blows a save.
But GOP pollster Frank Luntz – whose focus group of swing voters rated Kerry the winner by 16-2 – predicted Kerry will gain enough undecided voters to come back from 6 points behind and soon turn the race into a tie.
Republicans – some so upset by Bush’s lackluster performance that they couldn’t bear to watch all of the debate – had settled down yesterday, and the mood seemed more disappointed than panicky, as they regretted a missed chance to lock up the race.
“Bush had a chance to nail Kerry for saying all kinds of things that aren’t true and end the race, but he didn’t. That will keep it close because it breathed life back into Kerry and fired up his troops, who were pretty depressed,” one said.
Kerry also went unchallenged when he portrayed Iraq as unconnected to the war on terror. Republicans tore out their hair over Bush’s failure to note how terrorists captured abroad helped foil terror plots aimed at targets like New York’s Citicorp Center.
But Kerry’s team may have made a strategic blunder in its post-debate strategy, which took a distinctly snarky tone of ridiculing Bush for his debate smirks and scowls instead of honing in on the issues.
That was a clear copycat strategy on how Bush scored by ridiculing Al Gore’s audible sighs in the first 2000 debate – but that was a very different time, pre-9/11, and the stakes and issues now are much more serious.
By contrast, Bush got right back to issues and hit Kerry on Iraq, painting him as a flip-flopper who wants to give France a “veto” over America’s security – the kind of attacks that Republicans wished they’d seen in the debate.
The Republican National Committee posted an Internet video of “Kerry vs. Kerry” on the issues – while the Democratic National Committee released a video that it billed as “George W. Bush’s angry, frustrated, annoyed and peeved reactions.”
It also turns out to be good luck for Bush that there will be three debates. His team wasn’t keen on the second debate, a town hall next Friday in St. Louis – but that will give Bush a second chance on issues like Iraq.
And in an intriguing sidelight, the Iowa political futures market – which lets political junkies invest in the outcome – shows 60 percent predicting a Bush win.
What’s next
First and only vice presidential debate
When: Tuesday, Oct. 5
Where: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
Topics: foreign and domestic policy
Second presidential debate
When: Friday, Oct. 8
Where: Washington University, St. Louis, Mo.
Topics: Questions asked by participants in town-hall-style meeting
Final presidential debate
When: Wednesday, Oct. 13
Where: Arizona State University, Tempe
Topics: domestic policy