Defending champs Rodgers Rop and Joyce Chepchumba are the favorites in today’s New York City Marathon; Martin Lel and Catherine Ndereba are the dark horses. Kenyan men have won four of the previous six crowns, and are seven of the top nine seeds.
The art of marathoning has increasingly become Kenya vs. the World, and Kenya is winning. The United States has gone from important to irrelevant in the past 20 years, begging the questions: Is the problem fixable? How?
No U.S. woman has won here since Miki Gorman in 1977, no U.S. man since Alberto Salazar in 1982. The New York Road Runners will give awards named after Salazar to today’s top U.S. finishers.
“It’s something that can put a spotlight on our Americans as they work to get back into the thick of it,” Salazar said. “I see positive signs. It’s not going to be overnight, but we’re moving in right direction. In the last few years I’ve seen a huge jump forward.”
The women have jumped farther faster. Today’s rabbit, Deena Kastor, has the fourth-fastest time in the world this year. No. 4 seed Marla Runyan ran fourth here last year in her debut. But the men have lagged behind the rest of the world.
Salazar said high school runners are improving lately because they’ve returned to hard training. But the fastest U.S. marathon this year is Jimmy Hearld’s 2:12.51, eight minutes off the world record.
The top four U.S. seeds, led by Clint Wells, are first-time marathoners. Any hope will come from phenoms like Dathan Ritzenheim or Alan Webb turning pro and committing to the marathon early.
“There’s definitely a talent pool in Africa that’s hard to compete with,” Wells said. “You can want to win, but if the physical tools aren’t there, they’re not there. It’s hard to compete with a history and a lifestyle.”
Both Wells and fellow marathon rookie Matt Downin agree it will take drastic changes to offset the Kenyan advantages.
“Time. It’s going to take a lot of work,” said Downin, adding his keys are getting collegians to try marathons early and high-altitude training groups like the Team USA camp he runs with in Mammoth (Calif.). Other camps in Michigan, Minnesota and Rochester are good starts.
“[But] those groups get support for a year and the sponsors pull their money. Running is a developmental sport; it’s going to take years before they’re in a position to think about championships.”
Many years, according to Dr. Gabriele Rosa. He has coached the Fila team, an elite group of Kenyans that includes Lel and fifth-seeded 2001 champ Margaret Okayo, to a mind-boggling 52 marathon wins in the past two years, and he said the dominance will continue.
“It’s genetics first, altitude second, and now it’s the top training,” Rosa said. “[It’s] the life they’ve done for maybe 2,000 years; they eat simple foods, live at altitude, move around. It’s nature’s selection.
“[For the U.S.] to get a stronger, tougher runner, change your kind of life. Train hard, do altitude training with friends, and not go out on business and all the other things. It will take a long time, but the white runner will be back.”