ALBANY – While there’s no question that Gov. Pataki wants another four-year term, there’s growing doubt he will actually stay in office that long if he is re-elected.
“I think we’ll probably find Pataki serving as ambassador to Upper Volta or some other place in 18 months or so,” quipped Cooper Union historian Fred Siegel.
There are several reasons Siegel and other longtime observers believe a re-elected Pataki won’t serve until 2006.
Many believe that both the state and city face a fiscal crackup next year, meaning Pataki will have to make many tough, unpleasant and unpopular choices – from which he may want to flee.
Many also believe Pataki, who once vowed to serve only two terms, decided to seek a third only in hopes of being considered as a vice-presidential candidate should Dick Cheney not be available in 2004.
There is also what is known at the state Capitol as the “boredom factor,” the widespread belief – even among Pataki’s own associates – that the governor isn’t stimulated by his job.
Pataki himself has fueled speculation of a possible early departure, repeatedly refusing to commit to serving a four-year term.
Longtime Pataki observers also note that the one-time state lawmaker, legislative staffer, and mayor of Peekskill has been known to do the unexpected, and has often grabbed opportunities when they were available, to evident success.
“I believe the governor, if he’s re-elected, will serve another year or two to see if he can make it onto the national ticket,” said a longtime Pataki political associate, who requested anonymity.
“If that doesn’t work out for the governor, I see him resigning his job and going into the private sector.
“I don’t think there’s any question that he’d like to make a lot of money, that he thinks he’s sacrificed his income by being governor, and that he’d like to have a chance to make that up.”