OF all the odd things in this season, the oddest may be this – the Yankees should be rooting for the Red Sox. Kinda.
Anyone who watched the A’s sweep the Yankees over the weekend or knows the A’s became the first team to sweep the Yanks in consecutive series since 1993 (the last non-interrupted season the Yanks did not make the playoffs) or remembers last year when an inexperienced A’s team came a brilliant Mike Stanton relief outing from upending the Yankees in the Division Series should recognize the last team the Yanks should want to face in a best-of-five is Oakland.
Assuming the Yankees win the AL East, their best scenario would be having the wild card come from the AL Central, so that either Minnesota or Cleveland would play Seattle in one best-of-five with the division winner playing the Yankees.
As crazy as it would seem – since Seattle is going to beat Oakland by double-digit games in the AL West – the next best scenario would have the Yanks playing the Mariners in the first round. That would take the AL Central winner to finish with a better record than the Yankees. If that were to happen and the A’s were the wild card, they would play the AL Central winner while the Yanks faced the Mariners.
But with both Cleveland and Minnesota struggling (the Twins were just swept four games by the Devil Rays), it is unlikely two AL Central teams will reach the postseason or that the division winner will have a better record than the AL East winner.
Thus, to avoid the A’s, the Yankees would need the Red Sox to beat out Oakland for the wild card. Then Boston would play Seattle in the first round and the Yanks would get a softer AL Central foe. To hope for this puts the Yanks in a tricky spot. Not just rooting for their great historic rival, but balancing their desire to win the division with wanting to see Boston nevertheless win plenty of games. It makes the seven games they play between Aug. 31-Sept. 10 fascinating. Because it might not be in the Yankees’ best long-term interest to go 7-0 or 6-1, although that would essentially assure a fourth straight division title.
OK, we know Yankee diehards will believe that come October their team will beat anyone. That is hard to argue considering the Yankees have won nine straight playoff series and woke from a season-ending funk last year to beat Oakland in the first round. But a few items should be remembered about that Division Series:
The only A’s with previous playoff experience were Doug Jones, Mike Magnante and Randy Velarde. This current Oakland team has last year’s pressure cooker to learn from.
The A’s had to sweep Texas on the last weekend to clinch the AL West, needing to start Barry Zito and Tim Hudson the final two games. So Hudson and Zito did not start until Games 3 and 4 against the Yanks and only Gil Heredia started twice, including the decisive Game 5 in which he faced seven batters and retired only one as the Yanks built a 6-0 lead.
If the A’s were to sprint away from Boston and gain the wild card early enough, they would line up the imposing trio of Hudson, Zito and Mark Mulder to start at least three and possibly all five games. Anyone who watched Mulder equal Mike Mussina on Sunday in the only weekend starting matchup with October potential could see the danger the A’s pose.
With the inexperience and with the inability to line up their starters, the A’s still got to Game 5 and had Stanton not enhanced his stellar October rep with two scoreless innings, the Yanks probably would have had their three-peat dreams end in Oakland. On Sunday, Giambi’s walk-off homer was against Stanton. Perhaps that or the fact Giambi homered in all three games was an omen.
He has the Yankee-killer look about him that Edgar Martinez had in 1995 while Martinez, at 38, is showing some signs of slowing down. Seattle has a good rotation, but nowhere near as formidable as the A’s would be to the Yanks, especially due to the lefties Mulder and Zito. And, with 11 wins in a row, Oakland is playing now how the Mariners did early when Seattle appeared a team of destiny.
So is Seattle the team with magic on their side? Or Oakland? Or the Yanks again? It is in the Yanks’ best interest to eliminate other possibilities. Which would mean no Oakland in the playoffs. Which means the Yanks should be rooting for the Red Sox.
Kinda.
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WILD-CARD CONUNDRUM
A look at how the Yankees have fared vs. the Red Sox and A’s this season (chart)