BALTIMORE – If Monarchos, the great gray monster of the season, can reproduce the electrifying charge that annihilated the Kentucky Derby and the Florida Derby, Saturday’s Preakness is over before it even begins. Write him the check now. But what if he falters? What if his seasonal exploits have left him so drained that he cannot muster his patented five-furlong demolition sweep?
That is a distinct possibility and it’s turning the Preakness into an exciting lottery – and driving his trainer, John T. Ward Jr., toward distraction.
The nightmare word for it is “bounce.”
Asked yesterday whether he thought Congaree, who finished third in the Derby, might bounce higher than the sky, Ward wailed, “I wonder if we’re eligible to bounce. We ran over the top in the Derby so we’ll see whether the old bounce theory holds true.”
Ward has reason to be concerned. Monarchos has run faster, faster, faster in virtually every race he has run, culminating in the second fastest running in 127 years of the Kentucky Derby. No horse can keep outrunning himself forever.
Ward, bursting with confidence before the Derby, is candidly troubled in the approach to the Preakness.
He says there “appears” still to be a lot of gas in his horse’s tank. But he is so gun-shy he has not breezed Monarchos since the Derby. He is scrounging and saving every ounce of energy.
And that’s the least of Ward’s problems.
“Unlike the Derby, I haven’t the faintest idea how the Preakness is going to unfold and that’s what’s making me totally uneasy,” the trainer said.
“I think Monarchos can duplicate his Derby run, but whether it will be as effective at Pimlico has me worried. The pace set-up here will be different. We have different players, different riders.
“Richly Blended looks to be the only speed and if Rick Wilson [his jockey] can slow him down with easy fractions, he’s going to be extremely dangerous.”
One thing Ward promises: Monarchos, if he wins the Preakness, will not win by daylight as he won the Derby.
“It’s going to be a hard-fought game down the stretch,” he said. “He had a perfect trip in the Derby, but this time we have less distance and tight turns to deal with.”
Nevertheless, Ward retains high confidence in his horse.
“Tomorrow, he’ll be an absolute bear,” he warned.
Monarchos is not the only horse facing a possible bounce. Congaree is right there with him.
Congaree went into the Derby with only four races under his belt and was promptly subjected to the most grueling test imaginable.
He chased the swiftest pace in Derby history, literally sprinted clear to take the lead at the top of the stretch, then was slugged by challenges on all sides through the gut-wrenching stretch run. Under pressure, he folded to finish third, more than four lengths behind Monarchos in the fastest race of his life.
For all that, trainer Bob Baffert, who likes to pump the work into his horses, drilled Congaree over five-eighths Monday in a sharp 1:00 2/5.
How much can this unseasoned horse take before he wobbles?
Nobody knows – until Saturday evening. But Ward still thinks Congaree is the horse to beat.
“He’s the only horse to beat us this year,” Ward said. “I knew the quality horse we had in Monarchos, so when Congaree beat him in the Wood Memorial I knew he was a fine horse. You always respect the horse that can run with you and beat you.”
Still, the question remains: Will one of them or both of them – or neither of them – bounce Saturday? Only the contest will tell.