THE WEEK AHEAD: Suddenly, the question is whether Democrat Al Gore can bounce back after losing Debate 2 to Republican George W. Bush – big-time. Bush tops national polls by a bit, and Gore aides are cash-short and squabbling. The Mideast looms as the X factor, but voters rate Bush at least as high as Gore on foreign policy. Gore tries to paint Bush’s Texas as a mess, but will voters believe Gore, given his credibility woes? Tomorrow’s final debate is Gore’s best bet to change the dynamic, but the town-hall format doesn’t favor confrontation – ordinary voters ask the questions, and mostly, they don’t like fisticuffs.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
Democrats
POLLSTER RON LESTER: Gore’s second debate didn’t go too well, but I haven’t seen slippage in the numbers. One reason Florida is in play is the Gov. Jeb Bush factor and his opposition to affirmative action – I expect a big black turnout, because black leaders are saying, “Send a message and vote against W. because of what Jeb did.” It’s too early to know how the Mideast will play. Gore could be helped by his closeness to the situation and being in on all these meetings, but whether he can capitalize on it is unclear. Gore was too cautious in the second debate. Now he should just be himself and let the chips fall where they may.
POLLSTER PAUL MASLIN: This is as uncertain a political environment as I’ve ever seen. It’s very close, but obviously, Bush has the momentum. In California, Gore is still ahead, but it’s under 10 points. Whether or not the Mideast stopped Bush’s momentum after the second debate is unclear. But the Mideast may also have blocked Gore from turning the focus to Bush’s Texas. Usually, people rally around the administration in a crisis, but this is a very dangerous one where administration policy is very much tied into the outcome. If the Mideast doesn’t simmer down by tomorrow’s debate, both will be reluctant to mix it up too much. That helps Bush, because Gore needs a strong showing.
Republicans
POLLSTER ED GOEAS: Last week was big for Bush. The issue of Gore’s credibility has really stuck. During the second debate, in a focus group I was doing, Gore’s numbers fell off the charts when he started telling an anecdote about a man in Springfield. People now assume that when Gore tells an anecdote, it’s false. The Gore camp can’t convince people that’s the same as Bush mistakes – there’s a difference between untruths and mistakes. What’s happening overseas may have put a damper on solidification of Bush’s gains. But polling shows Bush is at least equal to Gore on foreign policy. For the first time, you see an edge for George Bush, and next week will be very telling.
STRATEGIST JOHN MORGAN: Bush has a narrow but comfortable lead – it’s going to be hard for Gore to catch up. I don’t think Gore can get to 47 percent – no Democrat has gotten over 50 percent since 1968, except for Jimmy Carter in 1976, when he was running to the right of Gerald Ford. Bush could sweep the entire South, including Arkansas and Tennessee. He’s very strong in rural America. The conventional wisdom used to say that in times of crisis, people rally around the party in power, but I’m not sure people are really convinced Clinton has handled the Mideast well. I think Republicans will keep both the House and Senate, but both are very close.
THE HOUSE
* Still anyone’s guess who’ll control the House, where all 435 seats are up and Dems need a gain of seven (due to a rebel who’ll vote for a GOP speaker). Tempers rise and senator-wannabe Rick Lazio isn’t the only Republican to accuse Dems of stalking. Missouri GOPer Bill Federer – trying to oust House Dem leader Dick Gephardt – claims a Gephardt volunteer stalked him. The volunteer is filming a parade when Federer allegedly breaks his camera – and gets charged with assault, which could bring one year in jail rather than two in the House. Republicans are fielding about a score of black contenders to try to cut Dem support among blacks. The best bet remains Joan Johnson, seeking Lazio’s seat on Long Island. But another black Republican woman originally from Long Island is also in a close contest: Retired Navy officer Jennifer Carroll, who now lives in Florida, is challenging Dem incumbent Corrine Brown, who has ethics woes. Brown is favored, but is in enough trouble that President Clinton and Jesse Jackson both stumped for her.
THE SENATE
* Dem hopes to take control fade as polls suggest Republicans might even add a seat to their current 54-46 majority. The Dem seat in New Jersey is suddenly at risk, as two GOP polls show a near-tie between record-spending gazillionaire Jon Corzine and Republican Bob Franks. Corzine is under fire for refusing to release tax returns and backing President Clinton’s refusal to veto an anti-Israel U.N. resolution. Corzine counts on a strong get-out-the-vote effort among blacks in a state famed for upsets. Republicans grump because Bush ignores the state. Dems lead for pickups in Minnesota and Florida. But that’s balanced by a likely GOP pickup in Nevada, and two other Dem seats are in serious danger – Virginia Sen. Chuck Robb and an open Nebraska seat. And Hillary Clinton isn’t a New York shoo-in. Republican candidates lead in other targeted GOP seats, although a few just by a hair: Delaware (3 points), Michigan (13), Pennsylvania (20), Missouri (3), Washington state (5) and Montana (9). Montana Sen. Conrad Burns accuses his Dem rival of smirking and “Gore-isms” at a debate.
IOWA POLITICAL FUTURES MARKET: The University of Iowa’s Political Futures Market lets voters invest in candidates as if they were stocks. It has a pretty good track record in predicting results. Current prediction: Gore will get 49.6 percent (down from 51 percent last week) and Bush 48.8 (up from 47.6). On line at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem.
LATEST TRACKING POLLS: Bush is ahead in all national polls by slim margins. He’s picking up in key states as well.CNN-Gallup tracking poll of likely voters: Bush, 48; Gore, 43; Ralph Nader, 2; Pat Buchanan, 1. Conducted Oct. 12-14; error margin of 4 points. A big shift from midweek, when Gore led by 11.Voter.com “Battleground” tracking poll of likely voters: Bush, 43; Gore, 39; Nader, 4; Buchanan, 1. Conducted Oct. 9-12; error margin of 3 points.Zogby-Reuters tracking poll of likely voters: Gore, 43; Bush, 41; Nader, 5; Buchanan less than 1. Conducted Oct. 12-14; error margin of 3 points.
TEA LEAVES: California Dreamin’? It’s not quite “in play” yet, but Bush is gaining – and it’s an absolute must-win for Gore, who can’t afford to put in any TV money. Pundits laughed when Bush went after California, but he’ll have the last laugh if Gore has to divert precious resources . . . Gore still leads in many Electoral College tallies – many state polls are a few weeks old, before Bush edged up in national polls . . . Dems all but write off Ohio as Bush country, and some Dems privately admit Bush’s lead is growing in Florida while Gore’s lead is shrinking in Pennsylvania . . . That makes Michigan vital . . . The Nader factor is a big Gore worry in Michigan, where 4 percent of voters are Arab-American – Nader is of Lebanese descent . . . Bush media man Stu Spencer on Gore’s subdued style at Debate 2: “It was like watching a shark trying to act like a porpoise” . . . Pro-Gore strategists have to trim TV ads because of the Democratic Party’s cash shortage, while Republicans have big bucks . . . Gore faces the messy question of whether to campaign back home in Tennessee, where Bush has a slim lead. It’s embarrassing to admit his home turf is at risk, but Gore needs its 11 electoral votes (same as much-courted Wisconsin).