If you have an appetite for political blood sport, forget about the Senate campaign – the really juicy main course will be served up next year, in the big battle for City Hall.
Not since the free-for-all mayoral campaign of 1977 won by Ed Koch has the Democratic field been so crowded – or the race so wide open.
While four Democrats are dominating the electoral landscape, there are several flashy wannabes looming on the horizon, including a former police commissioner, a multimillionaire and an outspoken TV newsman.
And, for the first time, money will probably not be a factor in the race because of stringent campaign-finance laws.
Instead, the candidates will have to use every political chit they have acquired over the years, rely on their local organizations to give them a boost, campaign hard and try to capture the most headlines.
A likely outcome of next year’s Democratic primary, in September, is that no candidate will get 40 percent of the vote – forcing a runoff two weeks later.
Because there’s no Republican heavyweight in the race and the city is so heavily Democratic, the winner of the runoff will likely become mayor.
And the difference between becoming the next mayor and fading into political obscurity could be just 10,000 or 20,000 votes.
Here are the contenders and the pretenders, their strengths and their weaknesses, as they strive to follow in the very large footsteps of Rudolph William Giuliani.
THE GANG OF FOUR
ALAN HEVESI: City comptroller since 1994, Hevesi played political footsie with Giuliani during the mayor’s first term in office – learning that the mayor doesn’t like to play nice. Now he’s on the outs with Giuliani, which probably is a political plus.
Hevesi, from Queens, is an intelligent, savvy politician with a clever political adviser (Hank Morris). But will he be able to get down and dirty when the mud starts to fly?
Strengths: Moderate politics that could appeal to Democrats across the city. Seems calm and reasonable, which might be what voters want after eight years of the hot-tempered Giuliani. The Rev. Al Sharpton hates him.
Weaknesses: Hardly the most exciting politician, Hevesi rarely takes the kind of political risks associated with New York City campaigns. Sharpton hates him.
Age: 60
Occupation: City Comptroller
Best Known for being a centrist on most issues and working quietly with Mayor Giuliani’s City Hall – until a recent contract battle exploded publicly.
FERNANDO FERRER: Bronx borough president since 1987, Ferrer is trying to become the city’s first Latino mayor.
With the help of Bronx Democratic boss Roberto Ramirez, Ferrer is trying to create a fragile black-Hispanic coalition that should last – as long as there’s no black candidate in the race.
Ferrer ran a lackluster campaign in 1997, before dropping out. He’s hoping that with Democratic media wiz David Axelrod at his side, the second time will be a charm.
Strengths: Ferrer has the backing of the best-organized political machine in the city. In a campaign filled with white guys, Ferrer could get to a runoff if no one pulls in 40 percent.
Weaknesses: It’s difficult to see Democrats in Queens rushing to the polls for Ferrer. It’s also difficult to see him winning in a head-to-head matchup against a white candidate in a runoff. To become mayor, Ferrer probably needs to get 40 percent in a busy primary field.
Age: 50
Occupation: Bronx borough president
Best known for: Being active against alleged police brutality; trying to keep Yankee Stadium in The Bronx; a crumbled 1997 mayoral bid.
MARK GREEN: The city’s public advocate since 1994, Green is the “Manhattan liberal” of the group – a label he is desperately trying to escape.
Green’s political stock dropped in 1998, after an anemic showing in a Senate primary against Geraldine Ferraro and Charles Schumer. Since then, Green has been working hard on the mayoralty, visiting neighborhoods far from his Manhattan base. He’s smart, but sometimes glib. He’s praying Ferrer drops out.
Strengths: With two white guys from Queens – Hevesi and City Council Speaker Peter Vallone – running hard against each other, Green sees a big opening. He also sees himself getting support from the black community, which has no candidate in the race. Public financing gives him fiscal parity with his opponents – the lack of which, he says, hurt him badly in 1998.
Weaknesses: Perceived as a Manhattan liberal in a political era when Manhattan liberalism is out of vogue. Has no political base in any single neighborhood – something that all the other candidates have. He might be in trouble if he gets caught in a runoff against anyone but Ferrer.
Age: 55
Occupation: Public advocate
Best known for: Combating Mayor Giuliani’s Charter-reform proposals; two failed U.S. Senate bids
PETER VALLONE: Speaker since 1989, Vallone can point to genuine accomplishments as the city’s most powerful Democrat. He pushed for tax cuts and helped expand the Police Department. A churchgoing family man, Vallone seems from a different political era.
Strengths: Has the entire council apparatus to help him. Might get the mayor’s support. Vallone’s middle-of-the-road, New York City-homeowner politics may appeal to Democrats who don’t want a return to Dinkins days.
Weaknesses: Lacks the fire in the belly needed to win a citywide campaign. Many top aides have left since his weak gubernatorial bid in 1998. Hevesi will steal some of his votes. Vallone has never been elected to anything outside of his council district in Astoria. He may be the nicest candidate of the top four – and we all know where nice guys finish.
Age: 65
Occupation: City Council Speaker
Best known for: Driving Mayor David Dinkins’ push to hire additional cops; fighting for massive city tax cuts; devout Catholicism.
THE WANNABES
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG: A wealthy media mogul who always loves it when people say he’s considering running for public office, Bloomberg has been keeping the rumor mill churning when it comes to the mayoral race. His political affiliation in the campaign – and the policies that he supports – are anyone’s guess. But he sure is rich.
Strengths: Ka-ching! He’s rich.
Weaknesses: Although part of his appeal is that he’s an outsider, Bloomberg has no political experience. His opponents will justifiably accuse him of trying to buy the election. He’s a Democrat who could run as a Republican.
Age: 58
Occupation: Media mogul
Best known for: Owning myriad media outlets; having huge cash reserves; throwing lavish parties for the press
BILL BRATTON: The city’s former police commissioner, this Boston-accented, tough-talking, crime-fighting, Elaine’s-loving guy won the hearts of many New Yorkers. And then, Giuliani fired him. Don’t bet on him running in the end.
Strengths: It would be as if Commissioner Gordon ran for mayor of Gotham City. Guaranteed the GOP line (if Bloomberg doesn’t run as a Republican). In a field filled with lots of Democrats about whom no one is really excited, Bratton could win the Jesse Ventura vote.
Weaknesses: Plenty, once you start looking. After eight years of law and order, do New Yorkers really want a top cop running things? His personality can be as prickly as Giuliani’s. But unlike Giuliani, who basically campaigned for four years from 1989 to 1993, Bratton has done little to stay in the limelight.
Age: 53
Occupation: Former police commissioner
Best known for: Innovative crime-fighting tactics; being pushed out of his job by Mayor Giuliani
GERALDO RIVERA: A TV reporter-personality, Rivera last week floated his name as a possible mayoral candidate. He’s brawled with white supremacists and opened Al Capone’s empty vault. He’s also been reading a lot about Jesse Ventura.
Strengths: He’s GERALDO! Would get tons of coverage in the papers and is media savvy.
Weaknesses: Knows nothing about the nuts and bolts of the city. Is also disliked by thousands of New Yorkers. Capone’s vault could become a hot issue on the campaign trail.
Age: 57
Occupation: TV reporter-personality
Best known for: Revelations about the O.J. Simpson and JonBenet Ramsey cases
SAL ALBANESE: A populist Democratic former councilman from Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, Albanese is hoping to build on his quixotic 1997 mayoral campaign with support from organized labor.
Strengths: You could imagine him as a hero in a Frank Capra movie – one where the hero goes down in flames.
Weaknesses: He’s even nicer than Vallone (who never got along with him). Will probably not have as much money as the others. Has low name recognition citywide. In a field top-heavy with white ethnics, he’ll be the first one voted off the island in the tribal council.
Age: 51
Occupation: Former Brooklyn Democratic city councilman
Best known for: Being a liberal on economic issues; having strong union support; drafting a “Living Wage Bill,” which mandated above-minimum wage salaries for employees contracted by the city
HERMAN BADILLO: A perennial candidate, this City University chairman and former Bronx congressman is considering a fourth run for mayor. Only this time, he’s a Republican.
Strengths: He used to be someone politically – about 20 years ago.
Weaknesses: Even the possibility of him being a Hispanic spoiler for Ferrer was eliminated when Badillo switched parties. His inclusion on Giuliani’s fusion ticket as the candidate for comptroller in 1993 went nowhere. That’s where he’s going again.
Age: 70
Occupation: City University chairman
Best known for: Supporting school vouchers and an overhaul of public education; being the first major Latino politican; three failed mayoral bids