Less than six months out from the midterms, Democrats are facing a brutal election environment thanks in part to inflation, general malaise, and the usual desire by fickle Americans to punish the party they put in power two years prior.
New polling numbers emphasize the challenge the party is facing. An NBC survey released on Monday found the Democratic Party with a favorability rating of -19. That was lower than any other person or entity surveyed, including the Republican Party (-11), Vice-President Kamala Harris (-17), and Donald Trump (-16). (Rats and roaches were not included in the poll, so it’s impossible to say if they’re more popular than Democrats.) The party could only dream of matching Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who drew the approval of 62 percent of respondents and the disapproval of only 9 percent.
The numbers match downbeat assessments elsewhere. Democratic favorability has dropped precipitously since last fall, a HuffPost Pollster average shows, and is now averaging about -11.6 percent. Democrats trail on most polls of the generic congressional ballot — though, on average, by only 2.5 points, per FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator. The party got more bad news on Monday, with redrawn New York congressional maps erasing much of its advantage there.
The most important number to watch in any midterm is presidential approval, and there’s no comfort for Dems in that department, either. FiveThirtyEight has President Biden’s numbers stuck in the low 40s — very similar to where Trump was at this point in his tenure, months before Democrats gained 41 seats and took back the House.
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