Risks Related to Emerging and Disruptive Transportation Technologies: A Guide (2024)

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2024 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1090 Risks Related to Emerging and Disruptive Transportation Technologies A GUIDE Steven W. Popper Fabian Villalobos Hye Min Park Jalal Awan Zara Abdurahaman RAND Corporation Santa Monica, CA Joseph Iacobucci Sydney Maves Sam Schwartz Los Angeles, CA Adam P. Cohen University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA Subscriber Categories Security and Emergencies • Operations and Trafc Management Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1090 Project 23-15 ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-70973-6 Library of Congress Control Number 2024937261 © 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or spec- ifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. 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e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major program divisions of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to mobilize expertise, experience, and knowledge to anticipate and solve complex transportation-related challenges. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,500 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1090 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Zuxuan Deng, Senior Program Officer Anthony P. Avery, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Kami Cabral, Editor NCHRP PROJECT 23-15 PANEL Field of Administration—Area of Agency Administration Jean M. Wallace, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN (Chair) Gina Beim, MCDA Consulting LLC, Shaker Heights, OH Adam David Carreon, Arizona Department of Transportation, Tempe, AZ Ashwini Chhabra, Electric Avenue, New York, NY Daniel J. Fagnant, General Motors Company, Austin, TX John Illson, Supernal LLC, Washington, DC James Kuhr, Texas Department of Transportation, Austin, TX Pengfei (Taylor) Li, University of Texas, Arlington (UTA), Arlington, TX Michelle Marie Mekker, Utah State University, Logan, UT Samyak Pandya, Ridecell, Inc., San Francisco, CA Thomas Pannett, Kegler Brown Hill + Ritter, Columbus, OH Christos Savvas Xenophontos, Rhode Island Department of Transportation, Providence, RI Govindarajan Vadakpat, FHWA Liaison Matthew H. Hardy, AASHTO Liaison AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared under NCHRP Project 23-15, “Guidance on Risks Related to Emerging and Dis- ruptive Transportation Technologies.” It provides insight into the difficult problem of risk management for transportation agencies in the face of emerging and disruptive technological change. It presents a risk register for various potential sources of risk in the realms of electric vehicles, connected autonomous vehicles, mobility on demand/mobility as a service, and advanced air mobility. Most importantly, it lays out guidelines for how estimations of risk and the associated consequences may be continuously updated and compared by agency risk managers in the face of dynamic change. RAND Corporation (RAND) served as the prime contractor. Steven W. Popper of Tecnológico de Monterrey (formerly with RAND), served as the principal investigator. The RAND project team included Fabian Villalobos, Hye Min Park, Jalal Awan (currently with The Utility Reform Network), and Zara Abdurahaman. Sam Schwartz served as the principal subcontractor. Sam Schwartz staff partnered with RAND on all aspects of the project that produced this report. Sam Schwartz team members included Joe Iacobucci and Sydney Maves. Adam P. Cohen provided support to Sam Schwartz in the field of advanced air mobility. Rosa Maria Torres of RAND provided valuable technical assistance in assembling a complicated report.

NCHRP Research Report 1090: Risks Related to Emerging and Disruptive Transportation Technologies: A Guide develops a register of risks to state and local transportation agencies and their constituents posed by four emerging technologies: electric vehicles (EVs), connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), mobility on demand/mobility as a service (MOD/MaaS), and advanced air mobility (AAM). The report presents approaches agencies can use to prioritize risks and identifies policies and actions to address risks along with the potential impacts of those policies and actions. The material in this report will be of immediate interest to public agency staff who may deal directly or indirectly with any risks related to emerging and dis- ruptive transportation technologies to the public (e.g., safety, privacy, security, inclusion, equity, mobility, public health, and acceptance) and to agencies (e.g., workforce, budget, tort liability, data governance, and changes in mission or role). Emerging technologies present many potential challenges to state departments of trans- portation (DOTs) and other agencies that own and manage the existing infrastructure. Significant uncertainty exists about which changes are most likely to occur and where the largest impacts could be, hampering an effective national alignment in policy and approach. While many emerging technologies are of interest, those seen as most critical are EVs and CAVs (and the necessary infrastructure for their operation), MOD/MaaS, and AAM. Under NCHRP Project 23-15, “Guidance on Risks Related to Emerging and Disruptive Transportation Technologies,” the RAND Corporation was asked to develop a guide to assist transportation agencies, DOTs, regional metropolitan planning organizations, and local agencies to attain a more resilient posture to managing risks that arise from introduction and adoption of emerging and disruptive transportation technologies. The study included a literature review on the sources of risk associated with emerging technologies; developed risk matrices that allow agencies to tailor their priorities for sources of risk from the four emerging technologies and across a range of agency goals; summarized higher-level policies or strategies in the form of policy primers for agencies to use for mitigating risk; and presented recommendations for how agencies can operate with greater confidence as they enter an era with multiplying uncertain risks. The report is accompanied by presentation materials and an implementation plan that identifies opportunities for dissemination and moving research into practice. These mater- ials are available on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1090: Risks Related to Emerging and Disruptive Transportation Technologies: A Guide. F O R E W O R D By Zuxuan Deng Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Summary 6 Chapter 1 Innovative Transportation Technologies and Risk Management 6 Overview of Research Parameters 12 Risk Management in an Era of Change 13 Outline of This Report 14 Chapter 2 How to Read the Risk Registers and Risk Priority Rankings 14 Risk Register Format 16 Practical Issues with a Risk Register of Emerging and Disruptive Sources of Risk 18 How Likelihoods Are Represented in the Risk Register 19 How Risk Priority Is Assessed in the Risk Register 20 Differences from Conventional Risk Registers 21 How Sources of Risk Are Ordered in the Risk Register 22 Chapter 3 Risk Register and Risk Priorities for Electric Vehicles (EVs) 22 EV Risk Register by Risk Priority 22 Literature Review on EV Sources of Risk 39 EV Risk Register by Risk Priority 49 Chapter 4 Risk Register and Risk Priorities for Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) 49 Literature Review on CAV Sources of Risk 61 CAV Risk Register by Risk Priority 70 Chapter 5 Risk Register and Risk Priorities for Mobility on Demand/Mobility as a Service (MOD/MaaS) 70 Literature Review on MOD/MaaS Sources of Risk 78 MOD/MaaS Risk Register by Risk Priority 82 Chapter 6 Risk Register and Risk Priorities for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) 82 Literature Review on AAM Sources of Risk 94 AAM Risk Register by Risk Priority 103 Chapter 7 Policies and Strategies for Agency Resilience to Risks 103 A Dynamic Agency Posture Toward Risk 104 Primers on Policies and Strategies 116 Chapter 8 Moving Forward Inside State DOTs and MPOs C O N T E N T S

118 Bibliography 134 Acronyms and Abbreviations A-1 Appendix A Analysis of Risk Priorities Across the Full Risk Register B-1 Appendix B Full Risk Register Sorted by Agency Goals C-1 Appendix C Methodology for Risk Management Assessment D-1 Appendix D Full-Text Policy Primers