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N C H R P W e b - O n l y D o c u m e n t 3 9 9 D e v e l o p i n g a G u i d e f o r N e w M o b i l i t y O p t i o n s i n T r a v e l D e m a n d F o r e c a s t i n g a n d M o d e l i n g N a v e e n E l u r u D e w a n A s h r a f u l P a r v e z T a n m o y B h o w m i k U n i v e r s i t y o f C e n t r a l F l o r i d a O r l a n d o , F L C o n d u c t o f R e s e a r c h R e p o r t f o r N C H R P P r o j e c t 2 0 - 1 0 2 ( 2 9 ) S u b m i t t e d J a n u a r y 2 0 2 4 © 2 0 2 4 b y t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s . N a t i o n a l A c a d e m i e s o f S c i e n c e s , E n g i n e e r i n g , a n d M e d i c i n e a n d t h e g r a p h i c a l l o g o a r e t r a d e m a r k s o f t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s . A l l r i g h t s r e s e r v e d . N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S y s t e m a t i c , w e l l - d e s i g n e d , a n d i m p l e m e n t a b l e r e s e a r c h i s t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e w a y t o s o l v e m a n y p r o b l e m s f a c i n g s t a t e d e p a r t m e n t s o f t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ( D O T s ) a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a n d e n g i n e e r s . O f t e n , h i g h w a y p r o b l e m s a r e o f l o c a l o r r e g i o n a l i n t e r e s t a n d c a n b e s t b e s t u d i e d b y s t a t e D O T s i n d i v i d u a l l y o r i n c o o p e r a t i o n w i t h t h e i r s t a t e u n i v e r s i t i e s a n d o t h e r s . H o w e v e r , t h e a c c e l e r a t i n g g r o w t h o f h i g h w a y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n r e s u l t s i n i n c r e a s i n g l y c o m p l e x p r o b l e m s o f w i d e i n t e r e s t t o h i g h w a y a u t h o r i t i e s . T h e s e p r o b l e m s a r e b e s t s t u d i e d t h r o u g h a c o o r d i n a t e d p r o g r a m o f c o o p e r a t i v e r e s e a r c h . R e c o g n i z i n g t h i s n e e d , t h e l e a d e r s h i p o f t h e A m e r i c a n A s s o c i a t i o n o f S t a t e H i g h w a y a n d T r a n s p o r t a t i o n O f f i c i a l s ( A A S H T O ) i n 1 9 6 2 i n i t i a t e d a n o b j e c t i v e n a t i o n a l h i g h w a y r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m u s i n g m o d e r n s c i e n t i f i c t e c h n i q u e s â t h e N a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i v e H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m ( N C H R P ) . N C H R P i s s u p p o r t e d o n a c o n t i n u i n g b a s i s b y f u n d s f r o m p a r t i c i p a t i n g m e m b e r s t a t e s o f A A S H T O a n d r e c e i v e s t h e f u l l c o o p e r a t i o n a n d s u p p o r t o f t h e F e d e r a l H i g h w a y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ( F H W A ) , U n i t e d S t a t e s D e p a r t m e n t o f T r a n s p o r t a t i o n , u n d e r A g r e e m e n t N o . 6 9 3 J J 3 1 9 5 0 0 0 3 . C O P Y R I G H T I N F O R M A T I O N A u t h o r s h e r e i n a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e a u t h e n t i c i t y o f t h e i r m a t e r i a l s a n d f o r o b t a i n i n g w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n s f r o m p u b l i s h e r s o r p e r s o n s w h o o w n t h e c o p y r i g h t t o a n y p r e v i o u s l y p u b l i s h e d o r c o p y r i g h t e d m a t e r i a l u s e d h e r e i n . C o o p e r a t i v e R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m s ( C R P ) g r a n t s p e r m i s s i o n t o r e p r o d u c e m a t e r i a l i n t h i s p u b l i c a t i o n f o r c l a s s r o o m a n d n o t - f o r - p r o f i t p u r p o s e s . P e r m i s s i o n i s g i v e n w i t h t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t n o n e o f t h e m a t e r i a l w i l l b e u s e d t o i m p l y T R B , A A S H T O , A P T A , F A A , F H W A , F T A , G H S A , o r N H T S A e n d o r s e m e n t o f a p a r t i c u l a r p r o d u c t , m e t h o d , o r p r a c t i c e . I t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h o s e r e p r o d u c i n g t h e m a t e r i a l i n t h i s d o c u m e n t f o r e d u c a t i o n a l a n d n o t - f o r - p r o f i t u s e s w i l l g i v e a p p r o p r i a t e a c k n o w l e d g m e n t o f t h e s o u r c e o f a n y r e p r i n t e d o r r e p r o d u c e d m a t e r i a l . F o r o t h e r u s e s o f t h e m a t e r i a l , r e q u e s t p e r m i s s i o n f r o m C R P . D I S C L A I M E R T h e o p i n i o n s a n d c o n c l u s i o n s e x p r e s s e d o r i m p l i e d i n t h i s r e p o r t a r e t h o s e o f t h e r e s e a r c h e r s w h o p e r f o r m e d t h e r e s e a r c h . T h e y a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h o s e o f t h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h B o a r d ; t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m i e s o f S c i e n c e s , E n g i n e e r i n g , a n d M e d i c i n e ; t h e F H W A ; o r t h e p r o g r a m s p o n s o r s . T h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h B o a r d d o e s n o t d e v e l o p , i s s u e , o r p u b l i s h s t a n d a r d s o r s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . T h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h B o a r d m a n a g e s a p p l i e d r e s e a r c h p r o j e c t s w h i c h p r o v i d e t h e s c i e n t i f i c f o u n d a t i o n t h a t m a y b e u s e d b y T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h B o a r d s p o n s o r s , i n d u s t r y a s s o c i a t i o n s , o r o t h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s a s t h e b a s i s f o r r e v i s e d p r a c t i c e s , p r o c e d u r e s , o r s p e c i f i c a t i o n s . T h e T r a n s p o r t a t i o n R e s e a r c h B o a r d , t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m i e s , a n d t h e s p o n s o r s o f t h e N a t i o n a l C o o p e r a t i v e H i g h w a y R e s e a r c h P r o g r a m d o n o t e n d o r s e p r o d u c t s o r m a n u f a c t u r e r s . T r a d e o r m a n u f a c t u r e r s â n a m e s a p p e a r h e r e i n s o l e l y b e c a u s e t h e y a r e c o n s i d e r e d e s s e n t i a l t o t h e o b j e c t o f t h e r e p o r t . T h e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n e d i n t h i s d o c u m e n t w a s t a k e n d i r e c t l y f r o m t h e s u b m i s s i o n o f t h e a u t h o r ( s ) . T h i s m a t e r i a l h a s n o t b e e n e d i t e d b y T R B .
e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major program divisions of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to mobilize expertise, experience, and knowledge to anticipate and solve complex transportation-related challenges. e Boardâs varied activities annually engage about 8,500 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.
C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 399 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Trey Joseph Wadsworth, Senior Program Officer Mazen Alsharif, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Jennifer J. Weeks, Publishing Projects Manager NCHRP PROJECT 20-102(29) PANEL Field of Special Projects Zhongren Wang, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, CA (Chair) Katie Beck, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing, MI Johanna I. Cockburn, City of Greensboro, Greensboro, NC Dalia Leven, Cambridge Systematics, Washington, DC Carrie McInerney, Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Watertown, MA Suman Kumar Mitra, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Fayetteville, AR Lubna Shoaib, East-West Gateway Council of Governments, St. Louis, MO Stanley E. Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO Jeremy Raw, FHWA Liaison
iv Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Project Background .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 Shared Micro-Mobility ............................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Transportation Networking Companies (Ride sourcing, Hailing, and Sharing) ....... 2 1.1.3 CAVs (and MaaS) ..................................................................................................... 3 1.1.4 Other NMOs.............................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Research Objective and Report Organization .................................................................. 3 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................ 4 2.1 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 4 2.1.1 Shared Micro-Mobility ............................................................................................. 4 2.1.2 Transportation Network Companies (TNCs) ............................................................ 4 2.1.3 Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV) Studies ............................................. 5 2.2 Metrics for NMO Inclusion in TDFM .............................................................................. 5 3 STAKEHOLDER SURVEY ................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Survey Design, Approvals and Dissemination ................................................................. 6 3.1.1 Questionnaire Preparation ......................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 IRB Approvals .......................................................................................................... 6 3.1.3 Dissemination Efforts ............................................................................................... 6 3.2 Survey Analysis ................................................................................................................ 7 3.3 Summary of Findings ....................................................................................................... 8 4 PRACTITIONERSâ GUIDE ................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Travel Demand Metrics .................................................................................................... 9 4.2 TDFM Updates ............................................................................................................... 13 5 CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLEMENTATION PLAN ......................................................... 14 5.1 Guide and Additional Resources .................................................................................... 14 5.2 Implementation Plan ...................................................................................................... 14 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................. 16 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................... 42 Appendix C ................................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix D ................................................................................................................................... 53
v NCHRP Web-Only Document 399 contains the Conduct of Research Report for NCHRP Project 20-102(29) and accompanies NCHRP Research Report 1113: New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide. Readers can read or purchase NCHRP Research Report 1113 on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org).
vi List of Tables Table 4.1 TDFM Metrics That Represent the Impact of NMOs on Travel Demand ................... 10 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Monthly trips of three ridehailing alternatives in NYC. ............................................... 2 Figure 3.1 Total count of existing TDFM by NMOs. .................................................................... 7 Figure 3.2 Count of TDFM by plan for NMO consideration in future. ......................................... 7 Figure 3.3 Count of TDFM by availability of resource for potential NMO consideration. .......... 8 Figure 4.1 Travel demand metrics for trip-based model. ............................................................. 11 Figure 4.2 Travel demand metrics for activity-based model ....................................................... 12