The Vision Pro hype is dying down, with Apple seeing a big drop in demand for its mixed-reality headset, according to market research firm IDC.
Although Apple recently began selling the Vision Pro outside the US, the headset isn’t projected to sell more than 500,000 units this year, IDC tells Bloomberg. In addition, the headset is expected to see a 75% drop in US sales this quarter.
"We expect Vision Pro to ship close to 400K in 2024, with about half going to the US," IDC analyst Jitesh Ubrani tells PCMag. "Despite the hype, the Vision Pro is still essentially a dev kit with a very high price tag, so demand will be limited.”
The Apple Vision Pro costs $3,499—far more expensive than an iPhone or MacBook. Another gripe among users and reviewers is the lack of exclusive content. Hence, Ubrani describes the product as more of a “development kit” meant to lure software developers to Apple’s VR platform rather than a product meant to appeal to mainstream consumers.
"You had this early surge in shipments for a time, and then the numbers tapered off because you don't have enough consumers buying the device. That's because they realize it’s not for daily use," he says.
According to IDC, three-quarters of Vision Pro buyers are businesses that likely have the budget for Apple's device. But they're not buying the VR headset in bulk; some are using it to build apps for the Vision Pro ecosystem, while others are experimenting with using it as a work device.
IDC’s projections align with estimates from Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known Apple analyst. In April, Kuo reported that the company had cut Vision Pro shipments to 400,000 to 450,000, down from previous market forecasts that expected shipments to reach over 700,000.
The Information also reports that Apple has halted development on a second-gen Vision Pro to prioritize a more affordable VR headset. But to gain mainstream appeal, Ubrani says the company will need to bring the headset’s price below $1,000, which could take years.
“Our assumption is that there will be a more affordable version probably at the end of 2025, maybe early 26, but that it would still be above $1,000,” Ubrani says. “You can cut costs in some ways, but you can’t drastically cut costs without sacrificing quality.”