June 12, 2024
The 2024 Elections in Pennsylvania
Marist Pennsylvania Poll
Trump Edges Biden by 2 Percentage Points in Pennsylvania, Casey Bests McCormick for U.S. Senate
In Pennsylvania, a state President Joe Biden narrowly won over former President Donald Trump in 2020, only two points separate the candidates among registered voters statewide. Support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein is in single digits. Chase Oliver receives less than one percent. In contrast, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey leads his Republican opponent, David McCormick, by six points.
Trump (47%) and Biden (45%) are competitive among Pennsylvania registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Kennedy receives 3%. Cornel West receives 1% as does Jill Stein. Chase Oliver receives less than 1% of the vote. An additional one percent supports another party’s candidate, and 2% are undecided. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote in November, the contest changes little. Two percentage points separate Trump (48%) and Biden (46%) among voters most likely to vote in this multi-candidate field.
Among independents, Trump receives 42% to 40% for Biden. Kennedy garners 8% with West and Stein each receiving 3%. In the 2020 exit poll, Biden carried independents, 52% to 44% for Trump.
While still strong, Biden has lost his formidable support among Black voters. 68% break for Biden to 23% for Trump. Biden handily won the support of most Black voters in the 2020 presidential election, 92% to 7% for Trump.
Among those with an unfavorable opinion of both Trump and Biden, Trump (35%) leads Biden (24%) by 11 percentage points. Kennedy receives 19%.
Biden has lost support among voters under the age of 45. Biden (46%) and Trump (44%) are competitive. Biden carried this age group by 24 percentage points in 2020. Yet, Trump’s advantage among older voters has evaporated. He carried voters 45 or older by 12 percentage points in 2020. Now, three percentage points separate Trump (48%) and Biden (45%) among this group.
"Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs," says Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Although Obama carried Pennsylvania handily in 2008 and 2012, Trump broke the "blue wall" in 2016 against Clinton before Biden 'held serve' for the Democrats in 2020. Now, there are no guarantees for either candidate."
Trump Presidency Viewed as Having More Positive Impact on Family and Country
A majority of Pennsylvania residents think they and their families were better off during Trump’s presidency (54%) than during Biden’s term (43%). Nearly identical proportions view Trump’s presidency (54%) as superior to Biden’s (45%) in terms of the impact it has had on the country.
Casey Leads McCormick by Six Percentage Points in U.S. Senate Race in Pennsylvania
In the contest for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey (52%) is ahead of Republican David McCormick (46%) among registered voters statewide including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Two percent are undecided. Six years ago, Casey outpaced his challenger by double-digits.
Plurality Views Casey Favorably… McCormick Lesser Known
More than four in ten residents statewide (46%) have a favorable opinion of Casey. 31% have an unfavorable view of him, and 23% have either never heard of him or are unsure how to rate Casey.
McCormick has yet to punch through. About one in three residents (33%) have a positive impression of McCormick while 31% have an unfavorable one. 37% have either never heard of McCormick or are unsure how to rate him.
Trump Supporters More than Twice as Likely as Biden Supporters to Skip Presidential Line
Most registered voters (92%) say they plan to vote for president. Six percent say they plan to vote but skip the line for president. Two percent say they are not likely to vote this year. Seven percent of Trump supporters, compared with three percent of Biden supporters, say they will vote but not for president.
More Than Seven in Ten Plan to Stick with the Candidate They Support
73% of registered voters statewide say they already know for which candidate they plan to vote. 20% report they have a good idea of who to support but might change their mind. Seven percent have not made up their mind.
Biden and Trump with Upside Down Favorable Ratings
Majorities of Pennsylvania residents have negative impressions of Biden and Trump. 55% have an unfavorable view of Biden, and 42% have a favorable one. 53% of adults statewide have an unfavorable view of Trump, and 43% have a positive opinion of him.
Biden’s Job Approval Rating at 42%
Biden’s job approval rating is upside down in Pennsylvania. 54% disapprove of how he is doing his job, and 42% approve. Biden’s approval rating is nearly identical to the score he received in November 2022. Pennsylvania residents are twice as likely to say they strongly disapprove of how Biden is performing (46%) than to say they strongly approve (23%).
Nearly Half Agree with Trump’s Conviction
In the aftermath of Trump’s conviction in his hush money trial in New York, 49% of Pennsylvania residents agree with the verdict. 25% think Trump did something unethical but not illegal, and 24% believe Trump did nothing wrong. While 91% of Democrats agree with the conviction, 50% of Republicans think Trump did nothing wrong.
A majority of adults statewide (54%) say, in general, the investigations into Trump’s actions were fair and intended to find out whether he broke the law. 45% think they were unfair investigations to get in the way of his 2024 presidential campaign.
Trump Perceived Better on Economy & Immigration, But Biden Bests Trump on Abortion
- A majority of residents think Trump (54%) would do a better job handling the economy than Biden (45%).
- Trump (55%) also scores better than Biden (43%) when it comes to immigration.
- However, a majority of Pennsylvania residents (53%) say Biden would better handle the abortion issue.
- Residents divide on who would better handle preserving democracy (49% for Biden to 49% for Trump)
- And, there is little consensus about who would better handle the United States’ role on the world stage (50% for Trump to 48% for Biden).
A majority of Pennsylvania residents (52%) assert the U.S. should focus on its own problems and play less of a leadership role on the world stage. 45% think it is crucial for the U.S. to play a major leadership role in world events.
Inflation & Immigration Key Voting Issues
More than three in ten Pennsylvania residents (31%) say inflation is top of mind when thinking about November’s election. Preserving democracy comes in second with 30% followed by immigration (16%) and abortion (10%). Seven percent indicate that healthcare is top of mind while crime is a motivator for 4% of Pennsylvania residents.
A majority of Biden supporters (57%) say preserving democracy is top of mind when thinking about November’s election. Among Trump supporters, 47% point to inflation as the top issue followed by immigration (30%).
Generic Congressional Ballot Competitive in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania registered voters divide on the generic congressional ballot question. Nearly half say they are more likely to support the Democrat (49%) in their district than the Republican (47%). When last reported in November 2022, 48% thought they would support the democratic candidate, and 46% thought they would back the Republican.
More Than Two in Three Confident in Local Government to Hold Fair Elections
When thinking about November’s elections, 68% of residents statewide say they are very confident or confident in their state or local government to carry out fair and accurate elections. 31% are not very confident or not confident at all in their local or state government to run an above-board election. There are wide partisan differences of opinion.