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Environmental Fluctuations, Agricultural Production and Collapse: A View from Bronze Age Upper Mesopotamia

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Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old World Collapse

Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((ASII,volume 49))

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Abstract

The relationship between human settlements, their associated land use zones and changing climate, is not straightforward. Following a summary of the relationship between present day land-use and environment, this paper describes how land-use productivity (and therefore the population that potentially could be supported) can vary with crop management practices. In a climate characterized by high inter-annual variability, agricultural production will fluctuate thereby influencing potential carrying capacity of the land. Simple models that employ fluctuating levels of production indicate that population levels will also vary unless necessary steps are taken to store and import food, as well as to intensify production. As population increases and greater reliance is placed on such strategies the system becomes more stressed and shows a greater propensity to collapse. It is suggested that Bronze Age settlement and land-use systems of upper Mesopotamia were brittle systems and were therefore vulnerable to collapse. Under conditions of maximum production it is likely that even a short-term dry period may have resulted in collapse, but certainly a significant run of dry years would have resulted in considerable production deficits which in turn could precipitate collapse.

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Wilkinson, T.J. (1997). Environmental Fluctuations, Agricultural Production and Collapse: A View from Bronze Age Upper Mesopotamia. In: Dalfes, H.N., Kukla, G., Weiss, H. (eds) Third Millennium BC Climate Change and Old World Collapse. NATO ASI Series, vol 49. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-60616-8_4

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