Abstract
In this work we study long-term variability of the main directions of extratropical cyclone movement (storm tracks) in the North Atlantic basing on the data of MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from Climatic Research Unit, UK (1873–2000) and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (1979–2021). It was revealed that, in the period of intensive cyclogenesis (October–March), the storm track latitudes in the longitudinal range from 60 to 10 ºW are characterized by noticeable variations with the periods of ~80–90, ~40–45 and ~22–23 years, which indicates their possible association with solar activity and related phenomena. Cyclone trajectories were found to be shifted to the north at the minimum of the secular Gleissberg cycle and to the south at its maximum, with the peak-to-peak amplitude reaching ~5º. On the bidecadal time scale, cyclone trajectories lie ~1−2º further north in even solar cycles. The detected changes of cyclone trajectories provide evidence for long-term variations in intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex, with possible factors of the vortex intensification being ionization changes associated with galactic cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic activity.
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Acknowledgements
MSLP data were provided by Climatic Research Unit, UK, at https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/ and NOAA/OAR/ESLR PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, at https://psl.noaa.gov/. Cosmic ray fluxes in the stratosphere were provided by Lebedev Physical Institute, at https://sites.lebedev.ru/ru/sites/DNS_FIAN.html. We thank the referees for carefully reading the paper and helpful remarks.
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Veretenenko, S., Dmitriev, P., Dergachev, V. (2023). Long-Term Variability of North Atlantic Storm Tracks: Possible Influence of Solar Activity and Cosmic Ray Variations. In: Kosterov, A., Lyskova, E., Mironova, I., Apatenkov, S., Baranov, S. (eds) Problems of Geocosmos—2022. ICS 2022. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40728-4_30
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