The remaining carbon budget consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C allows 20 more years of current emissions according to one study, but is already exhausted according to another. Both are defensible. We need to move on from a unique carbon budget, and face the nuances.
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41561-018-0142-4/MediaObjects/41561_2018_142_Fig1_HTML.jpg)
![](https://cdn.statically.io/img/media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41561-018-0142-4/MediaObjects/41561_2018_142_Fig2_HTML.jpg)
References
Millar, R. J. et al. Nat. Geosci. 10, 741–747 (2017).
Goodwin, P. et al. Nat. Geosci. 11, 102–107 (2018).
Tokarska, K. B. & Gillett, N. P. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 296–299 (2018).
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (eds Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. & Meyer, L. A.) (IPCC, 2014).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 325–332 (2018).
Geden, O. Nat. Geosci. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0143-3 (2018).
Allen, M. R. et al. Nature 458, 1163–1166 (2009).
Peters, G. P. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 646–649 (2016).
Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 245–252 (2016).
Friedlingstein, P. et al. J. Clim. 19, 3337–3353 (2006).
Jones, C. et al. J. Clim. 26, 4398–4413 (2013).
Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B. & Wigley, T. M. L. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1417–1456 (2011).
Geden, O. & Löschel, A. Nat. Geosci. 10, 881–882 (2017).
Schurer, A. P., Mann, M. E., Hawkins, E., Tett, S. F. B. & Hegerl, G. C. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 563 (2017).
Hawkins, E. et al. Bull. Am. Met. Soc. 98, 1841–1856 (2017).
Schurer, A. P. et al. Nat. Geosci. 11, 220–221 (2018).
Millar, R. J. et al. Reply to ‘Interpretations of the Paris climate target’. Nat. Geosci. 11, 222–222 (2018).
van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Clim. Change 109, 95–116 (2011).
van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8 (2018).
Shindell, D. et al. Science 335, 183–189 (2012).
Geden, O. Nat. Geosci. 9, 340–342 (2016).
Peters, G. P., Andrew, R. M., Solomon, S. & Friedlingstein, P. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 105004 (2015).
Tanaka, K. & O’Neill, B. C. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 319–324 (2018).
Robiou du Pont, Y. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 38–43 (2016).
Meinshausen, M. et al. Clim. Change 109, 213–241 (2011).
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K. Rev. Geophys. 48, RG4004 (2010).
GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) (NASA GISS, accessed 27 March 2018); https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Peters, G.P. Beyond carbon budgets. Nature Geosci 11, 378–380 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0142-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0142-4
- Springer Nature Limited
This article is cited by
-
Data Scaling: Implications for Climate Action and Governance in the UK
Environmental Management (2024)
-
Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target
Nature Climate Change (2022)
-
Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition
Nature Communications (2022)
-
Equity in allocating carbon dioxide removal quotas
Nature Climate Change (2020)
-
US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets
Climatic Change (2020)