Abstract
In July, heating of the continents in the Northern Hemisphere results in strengthened monsoon systems which bring rains to West Africa. In Nigeria, the annual rainfall total decreases from over 3,800 mm at Forcados on the coast to under 650 mm at Maiduguri in the north-east of the country. June, July, August and September are the rainiest months throughout the country. In many parts of the south, however, there is “supposed to be” a slight break in the rains for some 2 to 3 weeks in late July and early August or the so called “August break”. In this study, we are underscoring the obvious that climate is changing. The daily series of rainfall data for 1983–2003 analyzed between the months of July–August for some sites in the Eastern humid zone of Southern Nigeria shows that the “August break” may indeed “be breaking”. We have discussed some practical approaches to climate change research in this monsoon region.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adejuwon JO, Odekunle TO (2006) Variability and severity of the “Little Dry Season” in Southwestern Nigeria. J Climate 19:483–493
Adeniyi MO, Oladiran EO (2006) Recent results on atmospheric radioactivity at Ibadan, Nigeria. Radiat Meas 41:330–336
Amissah-Arthur A (2003) Targeting climate forecasts for agricultural applications in Sub-Saharan Africa: situating farmers in user-space. Clim Change 58:73–92
Aondover T (2005) Damaging rainfall and flooding: the other Sahel Hazards. Clim Change 72:355–377
Asadu CLA (2002) Fluctuations in the characteristics of an important short tropical season, ‘August Break’ in Eastern Nigeria. Discov Innov 14(1/2):92–101
Brown O, Crawford A (2008) Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa: country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso. International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, ISBN 978-1-894784-13-9
Douglas FO, Christian O, Ottke (2002) Land cover, rainfall and land-surface Albedo in West Africa. Clim Change 54:181–204
Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperatures: 1905–85. Nature 320:602–605
Glantz MH (1994) Forecasting El Nino: science’s gift to the 21st century. Ecodecision 12:78–81
Grist JP, Nicholson SE (2001) A study of the dynamic factors influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Climate 14:1337–1359
Heiko P, Hans-Peter T (2007) Regional modelling of future African climate north of 15°S including greenhouse warming and land degradation. Clim Change 83:401–427
Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Eischeild J (2006) Detection and attribution of 20th century Northern and Southern African monsoon change. J Climate 19:3989–4008
Hulme M (2001) Climatic persepctives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973–1998. Glob Environ Change 11:19–29
Janowiak JE (1988) An investigation of interannual rainfall variability in Africa. J Climate 1:240–255
Kamga AF, Jenkins GS, Gaye AT, Garba A, Sarr A, Adedoyin A (2005) Evaluating the NCAR CSM over West Africa: present-day and the 21st century A1 scenario. J Geophys Res 110:D03106. doi:10.1029/2004JD004689
Lamb PJ, Peppler RA (1992) Further case studies of Tropical Atlantic surface atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with Sub-Saharan drought. J Climate 5:476–488
Landsea CW, Gray WM (1992) The strong association between Western Sahelian Monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J Climate 5(5):435–453
Laux P, Kunstmanna HK, Bárdossy A (2008) Predicting the regional onset of the rainy season in West Africa. Int J Climatol 28:329–342
Nicholson SE, Some B, Kone B (2000) An analysis of recent rain conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña years. J Climate 13:2628–2640
Odekunle TO, Eludoyin AO (2008) Sea surface temperature patterns in the Gulf of Guinea: their implications for the spatio-temporal variability of precipitation in West Africa. Int J Climatol 28:1507–1517, www.interscience.wiley.com. doi:10.1002/joc.1656
Ogallo LJ, Okolla RE, Wanjohi DN (1994) Characteristics of quasi-biennial oscillation over Kenya and predictability potential for seasonal rainfall. Mausam 45:57–62
Olaniran OJ (1991) Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall of different daily amounts: 1919–1985. Clim Change 19:319–341
Olaniran OJ, Sumner GN (1990) Long-term variation of annual and growing season rainfalls in Nigeria. Theor Appl Climatol 41:41–53
Omotosho JB (1988) Spatial variation of rainfall in Nigeria during the little dry season. Atmos Res 22:137–147
Omotosho JB, Balogun AA, Ogunjobi K (2000) Predicting monthly and seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation of the rainy season in West Africa using only surface data. Int J Climatol 20:865–880
Payne R, Rummel L, Glantz M (1987) Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. In: Glantz M (ed) Drought and hunger in Africa. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 435–443
Salako FK (2008) Rainfall variability and kinetic energy in southern Nigeria. Clim Change 86(1–2):151–164
Sivakumar MVK (1992) Empirical analysis of dry spells for agricultural applications in West Africa. J Climate 5(5):532–539
Sultan B, Janicot S (2000) Abrupt shift of the ITCZ over West Africa and intra-seasonal variability. Geophys Res Lett 27(20):3353–3356
UNEP (2007) Sudan: post-conflict environmental assessment. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi
Wittig R, König K, Schmidt M, Szarzynski J (2007) A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa. Environ Sci Pollut Res 14(3):182–189
Zheng X, Eltahir EAB (1998) The role of vegetation in the dynamics of West African monsoons. J Climate 11:2078–2096
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chineke, T.C., Jagtap, S.S. & Nwofor, O. West African monsoon: is the August break “breaking” in the eastern humid zone of Southern Nigeria?. Climatic Change 103, 555–570 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9780-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9780-2