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Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil

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Abstract

Coffee production has a large share in Brazilian agribusiness and a cultural and social importance in the country. Worldwide, Brazil is the largest producer of arabica coffee and the second largest of canephora species. In 2020, national production was 14.3 million bags of canephora coffee. Few studies on canephora coffee adaptation to climate changes can be found in the literature. Thus, our goal was to identify areas suitable for Coffea canephora cultivation in Brazil under CMIP-5 climate change framework. The study was carried out for the entire country using data on average air temperature data for the entire year, November, and the coldest month, as well as average annual accumulated water deficit for the period of 1960–2020. These data were gathered from the Meteorological Database for Teaching and Research (BDMEP) of the National Institute of Meteorology of Brazil-INMET (Brazil 1992). Furthermore, BCC-CSM1.1 climate model was used at 125 × 125 km resolution to simulate future climate using WorldClim 2 data for 2041–2080, in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5. Potential climate changes can negatively impact canephora coffee plantations in all CMIP5 RCP scenarios studied. The BCC-CSM1.1 scenarios showed a 65% reduction in total areas suitable for coffee cultivation in Brazil. Rondônia and Bahia were states with the greatest impact of climate change since they had the largest reduction in areas suitable for canephora coffee growth. Currently, both states are major C. canephora producers and can therefore directly compromise regional economy. Thermal excess was the most common class for future scenarios, averaging 56.76% of the entire country.

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Adapted from DAMATTA et al. (2007)

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Acknowledgements

This study was performed with a financial support from the Instituto Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul – IFMS (Federal Institute of Mato Grosso do Sul).

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  1. Science and Technology of Mato Grosso Do Sul-Campus of Naviraí, IFMS-Federal Instituteof Education, Naviraí, Brazil

    Pedro Antonio Lorençone, João Antonio Lorençone, Guilherme Torsoni Botega & Rafael Fausto Lima

  2. Science and Technology of Sul de, Minas Gerais-Campus of Muzambinho, IFSULDEMINAS-Federal Institute, Muzambinho, Brazil

    Lucas Eduardo de Oliveira Aparecido

  3. Department of Exact Sciences, School of Agricultural and Veterinarian Sciences, São Paulo State University (Unesp), Prof. Paulo Donato Castellane S/N, Jaboticabal, SP, 14884-900, Brazil

    Glauco de Souza Rolim

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Lorençone, P.A., de Oliveira Aparecido, L.E., Lorençone, J.A. et al. Climate change and its consequences on the climatic zoning of Coffea canephora in Brazil. Environ Dev Sustain 26, 8377–8398 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03051-0

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