Wall Street kicks off the second half of 2024 with key jobs report in the week ahead

Published Fri, Jun 28 20243:56 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Jun 28 20244:30 PM EDT

Stocks have a lot to live up to in the second half of the year. At the halfway point of 2024, the major benchmarks have surged to impressive heights. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hovering around all-time highs, having rallied roughly 15% and 18%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average , which has less exposure to tech stocks, has risen nearly 4% year to date. Much of the gains for the broad market index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq can be attributed to Nvidia , which has now grown so large it has the heft to move the entire market. Since the artificial intelligence chipmaker started taking off in January 2023, the stock has soared nearly 800%. Just this month, it has made even more progress: Nvidia briefly topped Microsoft to become the most valuable public company . And, it's one of just three mega caps to have crossed the $3 trillion threshold. Deutsche Bank Research pointed out that Nvidia achieved this milestone in just 30 days, having made short work of adding a cool $1 trillion to its market cap. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia That exuberance has many investors concerned that the AI trade — and by extension, the markets — has exhausted itself, and they're deliberating how to position their portfolios for the balance of the year. If the choppy moves of the last week are any indication, the path forward promises to be volatile. "Equity market warning lights are starting to flash, but most investors can't hear or see them as the F.O.M.O in the markets is cranked up, and investors are just enjoying the ride," Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, wrote this week. "However, the longer these warning lights flash, the more painful the repair bill (market correction) will be." On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed out a winning week, gaining 0.2%. The 30-stock Dow and S & P 500 each posted losses, down by 0.1%, each. Limited gains from here Stocks appear to be at a critical juncture at the midpoint of the year. In recent days, a number of Wall Street firms have hiked their year-end S & P 500 targets to catch up with this year's surprisingly strong rally. Goldman Sachs, for example, raised its year-end target to 5,600 from 5,200. Citi now anticipates the broader index can end the year at 5,600 , upping its previous forecast of 5,100. Elsewhere, Evercore ISI hiked its target to 6,000, implying stocks can climb 9% in the next six months. However, few investors are as hopeful. On a median basis, strategists expect the S & P 500 will end the year at 5,500, a CNBC Pro survey shows . That level is not even 1% higher than where the broader index closed Thursday at 5,482.87. The benchmark has already topped that milestone just last week for the first time ever. Instead, more investors are fearful stocks could take an ugly turn in the summer months — a weak period for markets historically. Some worry the tech rally has overextended itself. Others are concerned the second-quarter earnings season, set to ramp up in a matter of weeks, may not live up to high expectations. "What you've done is begun to set a very, very high bar for what companies need to deliver beginning with the Q2 reporting period," Scott Chronert, U.S. equity strategist at Citi, told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" this week. "So, essentially, what all this sets up for from our perspective is that we have to be prepared for a pullback as we go through the summer months into the fall," Chronert added. "And then set up, we think, for a better opportunity into the end of the year." Elsewhere, Piper Sandler's Johnson expects the S & P 500 will tumble 10% this summer, saying investors are failing to heed red flags including poor market breadth and waning momentum. In his model portfolio, he's reducing equity exposure to 80% from 90%, and allocating the balance to cash. He is overweight on industrials. Still, others remain relatively optimistic on the path forward for equities. Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, noted that a "reasonably benign" growth environment, easing inflation, and the start of rate cuts across the globe, are reasons to be constructive on the stock outlook. "You put all those things together, we think it's an environment that's conducive to leaning into risk, to do it in a modest fashion," Merz said. He's expecting the rally could broaden out to large-cap stocks outside the mega caps. Jamie Meyers at Laffer Tengler said he's still bullish on technology, seeing those companies as the "new defensive names." However, he's avoiding stocks tied to the consumer, wary there could be a pullback amid signs of weakness. "The consumer seems to be running out of money," Meyers said. "With the exception, of course, being the baby boomers who are still spending like crazy." June jobs report Markets will be closed Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday. However, investors will get their next big insight into the labor market on Friday with the June jobs report . The U.S. economy is anticipated to have added 190,000 jobs in June, down from 272,000 in the prior month, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4%. The monthly jobs report is only increasing in significance as investors search for insight into the consumer, U.S. Bank's Merz said. While consumers have thus far kept the economy afloat, they have now exhausted their pandemic stimulus, and are starting to show signs of weakness. That means they're increasingly relying on jobs and higher wages to contend with higher pricing pressures, according to Merz. "It comes down to jobs and income right now, for consumers," he said. On Wednesday, investors will also get the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. Week ahead calendar All times Eastern Monday, July 1 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing final (June) 10 a.m. Construction Spending (May) 10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing (June) Tuesday, July 2 10 a.m. JOLTS Job Openings (May) Wednesday, July 3 8:15 a.m. ADP Employment Survey (June) 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (6/22) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (6/29) 8:30 a.m. Trade Balance (May) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (June) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services final (June) 10 a.m. Durable Orders (May) 10 a.m. Factory Orders (May) 10 a.m. ISM Services PMI (June) 2 p.m. FOMC Minutes Earnings: Constellation Brands Thursday, July 4 Independence Day Holiday Friday, July 5 8:30 a.m. June Jobs Report