Weekend wagers: Bets on eight sports including NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Final

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, June 8, 2024 | 2 a.m.

Weekend Wagers will cash a Stanley Cup Final futures ticket for the second straight year.

After winning with the hometown Vegas Golden Knights a year ago, the two teams I bet in the column this year both reached the Stanley Cup Final. Panthers vs. Oilers is a dream matchup for betting purposes.

Getting both teams through their respective conferences helped make up for the column’s first losing week in more than a month.

For some reason, I structured the bets to make more if the Oilers prevail as champions. But I’m fine with that because, while I might be in the minority, I expect the Cup to be going back to Canada for the first time in 31 years.

I’m confident enough that I’ll kick off today’s column with a bonus bet — the Oilers to beat the Panthers in five games at 8-to-1 at South Point for $100 to win $800.

The series should be closer than that — my actual prediction would be Oilers in six — but the odds to win in five are too long. I make the true price closer to 6-to-1.

I picked the Golden Knights to beat the Panthers in five games a year ago, and it worked out. Let’s run it back.

And if that bet is ill-advised, there are plenty places to make up for it elsewhere.

Read below for bets on eight sports including the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

WNBA (1-1, -$130): New York Liberty +1.5 -115 at Connecticut Sun (BetMGM)

$230 to win $200

The undefeated Sun have looked scarier than the twice-beaten Liberty in the early portion of the season, but that’s resulting in a better price on what I still think might be the best team in the WNBA. The results from the first month of the season aren’t all that predictive to me in this case because the Liberty have been coasting to an extent. The Sun have gone all out in every game with their trademark intensity while the Liberty have pulled NBA-like stunts such as sitting star guard Courtney Vandersloot for rest in Thursday’s 78-61 victory over the Atlanta Dream. Nothing like that should happen here against the rival Sun. The Liberty will be in top form, and in top form, the Las Vegas Aces are the only team that should be favored to beat them in any single game.   

UFL (4-2, $510): Birmingham Stallions -5 -105 vs. Michigan Panthers (Boyd Sports)

$157.50 to win $150

Birmingham closed an 8-point favorite against Michigan last week in the regular-season finale. Why has there been a 3-point drop in the aftermath? Birmingham did barely slip past Michigan, 20-19, but nothing was on the line and the yearlong title favorites went with a vanilla game plan against a team they knew they’d be hosting again this week for the XFL Conference Championship. I’ve bet against the Stallions on a couple occasions later this season thinking the market had gone overboard on their dominance, but now it’s swung the other way. A couple noncovers to end the season doesn’t mean they aren’t a touchdown better than almost any other team. Expect the Stallions to advance to a spring-league football championship game for the third straight season with a win today.

MLB (2-4, -$504): Chicago Cubs Even money vs. Cincinnati Reds (William Hill/Caesars)

$200 to win $200

The Reds are rolling, and the Cubs are crumbling. This weekend is where that trend starts to turn the other way. Cincinnati roughed up Chicago rookie starter Ben Brown a week ago, but he had been pitching extremely well for several consecutive outings before taking a 5-2 loss in that game. Brown has strong stuff; he should bounce back here. The Reds’ lineup is all the rage right now but the Cubs’ is just as strong and leads in several seasonlong metrics included weighted-runs created plus. The Cubs have just been a mini lull, and the betting market has overreacted to a stretch they’re soon to bust past.

Horse Racing (0-3, -$610): Sierra Leone to win the Belmont Stakes at +210 (Circa Sports) and Honor Marie to win the Belmont Stakes at 12-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$175 to win $357 on Sierra Leone; $40 to win $480 on Honor Marie

The favorites haven’t come through in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, but there’s always a third chance. Sierra Leone looked like the best horse in the Kentucky Derby but Mystik Dan caught him by a nose. This race sets up even better for the Chad Brown-trained horse after he sat out the Preakness to prepare for a shot at the win at Saratoga, where the distance will be the same as it was for the Kentucky Derby. Expect Sierra Leone to close hard and claim the win. The second-most likely horse to win by that route is Honor Marie, whom I backed in the Kentucky Derby at only a slightly higher price in a much more difficult field. I could probably just roll with Sierra Leone today, but 12-to-1 just looks a bit too inflated. Honor Marie is 9- or 10-to-1 at other sports books with fixed odds, and that’s more in line with where the number should be for a Sierra Leone-like late-speed threat.  

NHL (6-4, $450): Connor McDavid to not score a goal in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final at -170 (Circa Sports)

$340 to win $200

The world’s best hockey player can easily take over games with his scoring; it’s just that he usually doesn’t choose to. McDavid prefers to serve as a playmaker to fellow offensive-star teammates like Zach Hyman and Leon Draisaitl. That’s especially been true early in playoff series, and could again be the case today in Sunrise, Fla. I wouldn’t bet against Draisaitl or Hyman scoring — and would even consider betting on them to score at market-best prices like +165 and +130, respectively — but McDavid’s odds should be a little higher. He scored in two of the final four games of the Western Conference Final but still wound up with double the amount of assists. A similar split might be in line against the Panthers.

UFC (3-7, -$786): Ludovit Klein -125 vs. Thiago Moises at UFC Louisville (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$250 to win $200

Klein keeps getting better; Moises may have plateaued. This looks like one of the most exciting, evenly matched fights on tonight’s card, but I’d rather back the fighter who’s moving in the right direction. Moises recently left American Top Team, one of mixed martial arts’ top gyms, and has gotten finished in three of his last six fights. Granted, the losses have come against some of the lightweight division’s best fighters but getting stopped still takes its toll. Klein has come out cleaner and showed an improved wrestling game that should allow him to stay off the mat with Moises. And as long as he stays off the mat, he should have a pronounced advantage.

NASCAR: (3-10, -$100): Chris Buescher to finish in the Top 5 in Toyota Save Mart 350 at 2-to-1 (BetMGM)

$100 to win $200

Current form and track history converge to make this a smart bet. Buescher has found some undeniable speed in the last month or so, and now arrives at what’s traditionally been one of best tracks at Sonoma. He finished fourth here in 2023 and second in 2022, and arguably arrives on better form this year than he did in the two previous races. Some may argue recent results hold no bearing going into a road track like Sonoma, but I disagree. At least some of Buescher’s success should carry over here, and put him in contention for the victory.  

NBA (7-2, $2,750): Over 214.5 points in NBA Finals Game 2 (SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

The Mavericks shot horrendously in their 107-89 Game 1 loss to the Celtics Thursday night. The Celtics quietly weren’t all that great either and shot slightly below expectations. Both teams are sharp defensively so that’s part of it, but overall, I expect more offensive fireworks as the series progresses. All the action was coming in on the over in Game 1, to the point that it closed as high as 218, and one under outing shouldn’t be enough to completely change the perception. Both teams have some offensive tweaks they can make during their two days off, and there’s a good chance they nail them to rocket this score into the 220s.

2024 Weekend betting column: 51-53, $5,724.87

Weekend betting column all-time: 709-760-11, $37,005.87 

Previous pending wagers: Edmonton Oilers to win 2024 Stanley Cup Final at 12-to-1 ($250 to win $3,000); Oregon -1.5 -102 vs. Ohio State in Week 7 ($306 to win $300); Florida Panthers to win Stanley Cup at 10-to-1 ($250 to win $2,500); New York Yankees to win World Series ($300 to win $3,000); Christopher Bell to win NASCAR Cup championship at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Patrick Mahomes to win 2024-2025 NFL MVP at +750 ($350 to win $2,625); Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); New York Liberty to win WNBA Championship at +250 ($500 to win $1,250); Inter Miami to win MLS Cup at +300 ($500 to win $1,500); Tarik Skubal to win American League Cy Young at 20-to-1 ($120 to win $2,400); Cole Ragans to win American League Cy Young at 35-to-1 ($70 to win $2,450); Wake Forest to win the College World Series at 25-to-1 ($100 to win $2,500); Jayson Tatum to win NBA Finals MVP at +260 ($500 to win $1,300); Texas A&M to win the College World Series at 6-to-1 ($350 to win $2,100); Los Angeles Chargers -3 -120 vs. Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics -1.5 games vs. Dallas Mavericks in NBA Finals at Even money ($300 to win $300); Scottie Scheffler to win the U.S. Open at +450 ($400 to win $1,800)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or