Would Biden bowing out benefit an independent candidate?

(TND) — Don’t expect a windfall of voters for a third-party presidential candidate if President Joe Biden drops out of the race.

“These third-party options have been in the race for a long time already, and we know that support only goes down over time for third-party candidates,” Todd Belt, the Political Management program director at The George Washington University, said Friday. “Anybody who is going to have a dalliance with a third-party candidate has already had it.”

Indeed, the Pew Research Center recently published an analysis showing that independent candidates usually finish lower than they start.

That’s probably not great news for a current independent candidate such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is currently polling about 8%.

The Pew Research Center looked at modern-day presidential races in which a third-party or independent candidate won at least 2% of the popular vote.

George Wallace in 1968 peaked at 20% support in late-cycle polls but ended with 13.5% of the vote on Election Day.

Ross Perot in 1992 ran the most successful third-party campaign in modern history.

The Texas billionaire had attracted support from about a third of voters in the spring of that election year only to end with around 19% of the popular vote and none of the electoral votes.

The Pew Research Center noted that Perot authored the best showing by a non-major-party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt 80 years earlier.

The best showing by a third-party candidate this century was Libertarian Gary Johnson, a former New Mexico governor, with 3.3% of the popular vote in 2016. That Election Day result was down from support between 8% and 12% earlier in the campaign.

You have to go back to the 1850s to find someone other than a Republican or Democrat occupying the White House.

Belt said it’s Biden’s decision entirely whether to stay or drop out of the race.

And an ABC News interview with Biden airing Friday night can “really make or break” the campaign following the president’s poor showing in the debate with former President Donald Trump, Belt said.

Could the president really bow out of the race and pave the way for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him on the Democratic ticket?

“I think it's a small possibility,” Belt said. “I think it's bigger than it was before the debate, and I think that possibility can grow after this interview.”

But don’t expect Biden supporters to flock to a third-party candidate if that happens, Belt said.

A new GW Politics Poll found that voter commitment to Biden as a person was low, but support for Biden’s mission was high among his backers.

“It's not that people are that committed to Biden and then would slide over to a third-party candidate without him in the race. ... They're motivated more by stopping Trump, and going to a third party only makes it more likely you get Trump,” Belt said.

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Kennedy gets the most attention among independents, but Belt said Cornel West also deserves some attention.

West’s support is small, but he could put a dent in Biden’s critical support among Black voters in urban areas of Rust Belt states, Belt said.

Why does support fade for third-party candidates as Election Day arrives?

“The ramifications of the election become more clear,” Belt said.

Voters become more motivated by negative partisanship, and so they fall back to the closest party, he said.

“They don't want to throw their vote away, and they just don't want to see (what they view as) the greatest threat elected,” Belt said.