Conflicts in West Asia: Israel-Hamas war and the Yemen quagmire

The Yemen conflict is another case in point. The ongoing Israel-Hamas war scuttled the progress being made on resolving the conflict which has been on for more than a decade. The prospect of peace was further complicated by the country’s Houthi rebels as they entangled themselves in the war and began attacking shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians. 

Credit: United Nations

Before delving into the prevalent scenario, let’s trace the cause of the Yemen conflict.  

The Yemeni uprising

The prolonged conflict in Yemen can be traced back to the 2011 popular uprisings – commonly known as the Arab Spring – which broke out in various countries of West Asia and North Africa against prevalent socio-economic and political conditions.  

Like their fellow Arabs, Yemenis came on the streets to protest against their predicament summed up in their demands for ‘employment’, a ‘just state’, end to ‘patronage’, and, above all, the end of the over three-decade long rule of then president Ali Abdullah Salih. 

However, unlike in Tunisia or Egypt where the presidents were overthrown in a matter of few days following the outbreak of the uprisings, Yemenis had to fight hard to force Salih from office. 

As part of the Gulf Cooperation Council-led transition plan, Salih eventually stepped down in February 2012. His vice president Abdo Rabbu Mansour Hadi took charge of the country after being elected as the new president unopposed. 

Hadi was there to oversee a two-year transition process during which a national dialogue, constitutional amendment and a new election were to be held. 

However, the transition process was disrupted by the country’s Houthi rebels when they overthrew the Hadi government in September 2014. The Houthis’ move gradually dragged Yemen to a prolonged conflict. 

The ongoing conflict

In order to restore the legitimate transitional government/internationally recognised government (IRG), Saudi Arabia formed a coalition of 10 countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan and the UAE to intervene militarily in Yemen.

The coalition launched the military operations codenamed Operation Decisive Storm in March 2015, which was renamed Operation Restoring Hope in April 2015. It managed to drive the Houthi rebels away from the southern port city of Aden and other areas in the south. 

Aden is a highly strategic province as it controls the Bab al-Mandeb strait – the choke point between the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea through which nearly four million barrels of oil are shipped daily to Europe, the United States and Asia.

But the coalition couldn’t restore the IRG nor could it push back the rebels from the capital Sanaa. In the coming years, the conflict wreaked havoc on one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, exposing its 3o million population to what the United Nations described as one of the “world’s worst humanitarian crises”. 

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, an estimated 2,33,000 people have been killed in the conflict, including 1,31,000 people who died from indirect causes such as lack of food, health services and infrastructure.

As of 2024, 18.2 million people need humanitarian assistance, 17.6 million face food and nutritional insecurity, and 4.5 million remain displaced.

In the meanwhile, Houthi rebels in the north Yemen and Southern Movement or al-Hirak al-Janoubi capitalised on the prevailing uncertainties. 

The Houthis with links to Iran solidified their hold in the north, while the southern forces, primarily the Southern Transitional Council formed in 2017 and backed by the United Arab Emirates, pushed for the secession of the south Yemen. Diplomatic efforts thus far couldn’t yield desired results. 

Israel-Hamas war and the Yemen crisis

Following some rounds of inconclusive peace talks since 2016, the United Nations brokered a truce in April 2022 which formally expired in October 2022. Subsequently, the Houthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, which borders Yemen to the north, entered into negotiations. 

The negotiations made progress in the coming year. Alongside, China-mediated rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 apparently complemented the peace talks with some observers believing it could help resolve the conflict in Yemen.    

However, the October 7 Hamas attack called “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm” complicated the progress. Israel responded with “Operation Swords of Iron” and began attacking targets in the Gaza Strip. It has since intensified its military operations in nine months of war in which thousands of Palestinians were killed.   

Sooner, Yemen’s Houthi rebels jumped into the war and began attacking ships passing through the Red Sea in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The US and Britain responded with strikes against Houthi targets.

Moreover, in addition to the Israel-Hamas war and its spillover effects, the future prospect of peace in Yemen  is complicated by the US’s designation of the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation. 

Concerns for India 

As far as West Asia is concerned, India has a huge stake in its stability and security. Above all, in an uncertain security situation, safety of Indian nationals is India’s primary concern. 

Therefore, as the situation in Yemen turned violent, India evacuated its 4,741 Indians and 1,947 foreign nationals belonging to 41 countries in April 2015 under Operation Rahat. Subsequently, it relocated its Embassy to Djibouti.

New Delhi also extended its support for the UN-mediated efforts in Yemen. And in view of its “civilisational links and close friendship with Yemen”, it joined Friends of Yemen Group “in order to assist the country in the transition phase”.

In addition, it extended humanitarian assistance and provided rice and wheat valued at $2 million each in August 2012 and March 2013, respectively. 

In April 2015 it provided medical assistance and again at the request of the Yemeni government in December 2017 it extended medical assistance worth $1 million. In March 2021, India provided 360,000 doses of Covid-19 vaccines to Yemen under the COVAX programme.

Nevertheless, the protracted conflict has its bearing on India-Yemen ties. Bilateral trade between the two countries nosedived with trade volume dropping from US$ 2,258.00 million in 2010-11 to US$ 716.52 million in 2017-18. 

India’ energy imports from Yemen also suffered a setback. Although Yemen has a very small share in India’s total energy imports from the Gulf, it does add to the cumulative value. 

Yemen’s share in India’s energy imports which stood at 2.80 percent of India’s total energy imports from the Gulf in 2009-10 were reduced to nil in 2015-16. 

That apart, the persisting conflict doesn’t augur well for India’s interests in the region at large. India’s economic growth is directly linked to its energy needs, and the Gulf countries alone fulfil nearly 60 percent of its total energy needs. 

In addition, India’s effort to promote regional connectivity, trade and commerce through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the International North South Transport Corridor, and the Chabahar port pivots on the restoration of stability in the region. 

Therefore, the escalation in the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war and the involvement of myriad local, regional and international actors is a matter of grave concern for the region and the emerging powers like India.