Ruling BJP, Sena, NCP herd MLAs into hotels, as Maharashtra on brink of another political drama

With 12 candidates in the fray for 11 seats in the elections scheduled to be held on Friday, all three ruling parties have sensed the danger and shifted their MLAs to five-star hotels to prevent cross-voting. In the Opposition camp, only the Sena (UBT) has asked its MLAs to gather in one place.

“Cross voting will take place only if MLAs voting for a different side have an assurance of getting MLA ticket three months later,” said a senior NCP leader.

The timing of the MLC polls is crucial as it comes just a month after the Mahayuti faced a reversal in the Lok Sabha polls as the Opposition won 31 of the state’s 48 parliamentary seats and months before the Assembly elections.

How the numbers stack up

The BJP has fielded five candidates: party national secretary Pankaja Munde, former minister Parinay Phuke, former Pune Mayor Yogesh Tilekar, Matang community (Scheduled Caste) leader Amit Gorkhe, and former minister and Rayat Kranti Paksha chief Sadabhau Khot. The NCP led by Deputy CM Ajit Pawar has given tickets to Rajesh Vitekar, a party leader from Parbhani district, and party general secretary Shivajirao Garje, while the Shiv Sena has nominated former Lok Sabha MPs Bhawna Gavli and Krupal Tumane.

The Congress has renominated MLC Pradnya Satav while the Shiv Sena (UBT) has given the ticket to party chief Uddhav Thackeray’s close aide Milind Narvekar. Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) MLC Jayant Patil has also filed his nomination from the Opposition.

Of the 11 MLCs set to retire on July 27, four are from BJP, two from Congress, and one each from NCP, Shiv Sena, Shiv Sena (UBT), the PWP, and the Rashtriya Samaj Party. The strength of the Assembly has reduced from 288 to 274 because seven MLAs have been elected to the Lok Sabha, four have died, two have resigned, and one has been disqualified.

Under the preferential voting system. candidates will require 23 votes of first preference to get elected. Based on the numbers, the Mahayuti alliance says it is confident of winning nine seats while the MVA is expected to win two. Both sides are short of the required numbers to win the 11th seat.

With the support of Independents, the BJP has a strength of 111 MLAs. It means the party will require four more votes to ensure the victory of all five of its candidates. The Sena led by Shinde has 38 MLAs, including the CM, and claims to have the support of two legislators from the Prahar Janashakti Party and seven Independents, which makes its strength 47. That will be enough to ensure the victory of its two candidates. Ajit Pawar’s NCP has 39 MLAs and claims it has the support of two Independents, meaning it will be five short of the numbers required to win both seats.

In the MVA camp, the Congress has 37 MLAs. That is enough for it to win one seat, leaving 14 remainder votes that will be enough to see Narvekar, whose party Sena (UBT) has 15 MLAs, go past the finish line. However, there are reports of discontent among three Congress MLAs. The NCP (SP) has 13 MLAs and for the PWP to win, it will all those votes; the support of smaller parties such as Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (three MLAs), AIMIM and Samajwadi Party (two MLAs each), and CPI(M) (one MLA); and votes from across the aisle.

In addition to these parties, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) has one MLA.