Decode Politics: Delimitation and the Sangh — As RSS raises concern, where BJP, Opposition parties stand

“Regional imbalance is another critical dimension that will impact the delimitation process of the Parliamentary Constituencies in the future,” Organiser editor Prafulla Ketkar writes in an article titled Demography, Democracy and Destiny. “The States from the West and South are doing relatively better regarding population control measures and, therefore, fear losing a few seats in Parliament if the base population is changed after the census.”

Has the Sangh publicly raised this before?

While population control is among the key ideological projects of the RSS, and it keeps pushing for a national population policy, this is a rare instance of an RSS affiliate linking the argument to delimitation.

“There should be a comprehensive population control policy, which should apply to all equally, and once it is put in motion, no one should get any concessions,” RSS sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat said in his Vijayadashmi speech in 2022. “When there was (population) imbalance 50-odd years ago, we suffered serious consequences. It hasn’t just happened to us. In today’s time, new countries such as East Timor, South Sudan and Kosovo were created. So, when there is a population imbalance, new countries are created. Countries are divided.”

However, Bhagwat warned against excessive population control measures similar to what China adopted.

What concerns have the Opposition raised and what has the BJP said?

Delimitation is a Constitutional mandate that has to be carried out after every Census to readjust the number of seats and their boundaries based on the latest population data. However, the number of Lok Sabha seats and state Assembly constituencies has remained frozen for the last 50 years because of opposition from political parties from the South.

Several leaders in the South have expressed concern that delimitation based on population might lead to a fall in their representation in Parliament. In February, the Tamil Nadu Assembly passed a resolution opposing delimitation. Tamil Nadu and other southern states have argued that they should not be penalised for successfully implementing population control measures compared to high-population states in the north. Last year during a discussion in Parliament on the Women’s Reservation Bill, DMK MP Kanimozhi said, “…if delimitation is going to be on population census, it will deprive and reduce the representation of the south Indian states.”

The BJP has said delimitation will not be postponed and there won’t be any injustice with the South. “I have said that there won’t be any anyay (injustice) with the South, that is the BJP’s decision. How we do it, we will sit down with everyone and discuss. We will not defer delimitation,” Union Home Minister Amit Shah told The Indian Express in an interview in May.

BJP’s key NDA ally TDP has said hot-button issues like this will be discussed in detail. “Issues like delimitation, Uniform Civil Code, etc will be discussed at length and resolved amicably. We will sit together with partners across the table and try to achieve a consensus on all these issues. There is a lot to discuss,” Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s son and state minister N Lokesh Naidu told The Indian Express last month.

How many times has delimitation taken place?

In the history of Independent India, delimitation has taken place four times – 1952, 1963, 1973 and 2002, with the number of seats fixed and readjusted during the first three exercises. In 1976, the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution froze the number of Lok Sabha seats and put off delimitation for 25 years until the 2001 Census. In 2002, delimitation was delayed for another 25 years, with the 84th Amendment under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government. According to the 84th Amendment, the next delimitation would have happened only after the 2031 Census. But with the 2021 Census delayed, the government plans to change this. The Census has not been held yet.

How may delimitation change India’s political map?

The idea behind delimitation is to ensure that every state has equitable representation in the Lok Sabha based on its population. Depending on the formula worked out, seats for some states might fall and for some states, it is likely to increase. If the seats are allocated according to the projected population figures in 2026, Uttar Pradesh, for example, will gain an estimated 14 seats and the constituencies in Madhya Pradesh will rise from 29 to 34. In comparison, Tamil Nadu will see its number of constituencies fall from 39 to 30 and Kerala’s will drop from 20 to 14. Given the BJP’s strength in the Hindi belt, the Opposition’s concern is that delimitation may end up benefitting the party.