Battle lines drawn for Rajya Sabha vacancies, NDA stares at INDIA challenge in Maharashtra, Haryana

The Election Commission is yet to declare the dates for the Rajya Sabha polls for these 10 seats, of which seven were held by the BJP, two Congress and one by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Both the Congress and the RJD are key constituents of the INDIA bloc.

Among the BJP’s Rajya Sabha MPs who got elected to the Lower House, three are Union ministers — Sarbananda Sonowal (Assam), Jyotiraditya Scindia (Madhya Pradesh), and Piyush Goyal (Maharashtra).

Out of the vacant seats, two are each in Assam, Bihar and Maharashtra and one each in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tripura.

The BJP has sufficient numbers in the Legislative Assemblies concerned to retain both the Rajya Sabha seats of Assam, and one seat each in Tripura, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

In Bihar, both the BJP and the RJD will be able to clinch one seat each, given adequate numbers of both the NDA and the INDIA coalitions in the state Assembly.

However, the BJP is likely to face a stiff challenge in the polls for the vacant seats in Maharashtra and Haryana.

The current strength of the 90-member Haryana Assembly has come down to 87 now. While the BJP has 41 members, the Congress has 29 after its Mullana MLA Varun Chaudhary got elected to the Lok Sabha from Ambala. The Dushyant Chautala-led JJP, with which the BJP broke up just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, has 10 MLAs, while there are five Independent legislators and one MLA each from the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP). The Independent MLA from Badshahpur, Rakesh Daultabad, passed away last month. Another Independent legislator Ranjit Singh had resigned from his Assembly membership to join the BJP and contest the Lok Sabha polls on its ticket from Hisar, where he lost to the Congress’s Jai Prakash.

So in Haryana, on account of the support of Independent MLA Nayan Pal Rawat and an HLP MLA Gopal Kanda, the BJP’s strength comes to 43.

The remaining 44 MLAs appear to be in the Opposition camp, at least on paper, which include 29 of the Congress and 10 of the JJP. Out of the remaining four Independents, three MLAs including Sombir Sangwan (Dadri), Randhir Singh Gollen (Pundri) and Dharampal Gonder (Nilokheri) have announced support to the Congress. Another Independent MLA from Meham, Balraj Kundu, has neither supported the BJP nor the Congress. The INLD’s Abhay Chautala has also not announced his support to any party so far.

The Congress is hopeful that if it gets the support of all the Opposition MLAs, it can defeat the BJP in Haryana, which however looks unlikely.

At least six JJP MLAs have been upset with Dushyant, of whom two MLAs, Jogiram Sihag and Ram Niwas Surjakhera, have announced their support to the BJP. The JJP has written to Speaker Gian Chand Gupta., seeking action against these two legislators under the anti-defection law.

So, the Congress may not be able to muster the required number to clinch the lone vacant Rajya Sabha seat in Haryana unless the entire Opposition rallies behind it.

In June 2022 Rajya Sabha polls for two seats from Haryana, the Congress had the adequate numbers, but its then nominee Ajay Maken could still not make it due to cross-voting.

The BJP claims it has now the support of 45 MLAs (41-BJP, 1-Independent, 1-HLP and 2-JJP). However, the Congress says that the JJP’s MLAs cannot go against their party’s whip, a claim that the “rebel” JJP MLAs deny while pledging their support to the BJP.

In Maharashtra too, the contest is going to be tough for the BJP as both its NDA allies – the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – have struck discordant notes for not getting the Cabinet berths in the new NDA government at the Centre.

The Shiv Sena, which won seven Lok Sabha seats, is unhappy because other NDA allies with fewer seats got the Cabinet berths, which include the LJP(RV) with 5 seats, JD(S) with two seats, and HAM(S) with one seat. The NCP was offered a Minister of State (MoS) post, which did not accept it as the party wanted a Cabinet position. The Shiv Sena has got one MoS (independent charge) berth.

The INDIA camp in Maharashtra comprises the Congress, the NCP (SP) faction of Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray.

The Congress leaders whose election to the Lok Sabha caused two vacant slots in the Rajya Sabha include K C Venugopal (Rajasthan) and Deepender Hooda (Haryana).

The BJP will comfortably bag the Upper House seat in Rajasthan, given its absolute majority in the Assembly.