C Raja Mohan writes on Shangri La Dialogue: Modi and Biden’s New Asia

This year’s SLD highlighted the deepening tensions between the US and China. Even as it mobilises a broad-based coalition to balance China, Washington is seeking to resume high-level talks between the two sides and focus on confidence-building measures to prevent the tensions from escalating into a hot war.

Beijing, however, is playing hard to get. China is unwilling to accept the US terms of engagement. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin sought to make nice by walking up to the Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu to shake hands. While the Biden administration is persistent in its call for high-level dialogue, China sees it as a trap.

The two ministers outlined their competing visions of regional security. While signalling the intent for dialogue, Austin insisted that the US does “not seek conflict or confrontation…but will not flinch in the face of bullying or coercion.” Chinese defence minister Li insisted that he was not against dialogue, but the US must create the right conditions. Li also accused the US of “double talk”. He was, of course, not lacking in displaying China’s forked tongue. While blaming America, the outsider, for the growing regional tensions, Li made no mention of China’s own aggressive military actions against its neighbours. He thundered against the resurgent “cold war mentality” and demanded that “mutual respect should prevail over bullying and hegemony”. Security establishments in Delhi and other Asian capitals at the receiving end of Chinese bullying would roll their eyes at Beijing’s double talk.

The rest of Asia is no less hypocritical. Many Asian chancelleries are quick to criticise US actions but bite their tongue when it comes to China’s deeds. That does not mean the region’s leaders are blind to the ground realities. After all, China has been grabbing disputed territories from its neighbours and it is the US that is offering help to defend territorial sovereignty in Asia. Yet, there is a reluctance in the region to jeopardise the deep economic relationship with Beijing and a deliberate effort to avoid politically offending China.

Removing the Asian fear by explicitly challenging China’s claim to regional hegemony has been at the core of the US Indo-Pacific strategy in the last few years. This is beginning to generate rewards of its own, as many Asian nations step up political and military engagement with the US. Chinese warnings against such cooperation with the US or rants against “small cliques” like the Quad and the AUKUS are having very little deterrent effect. As Secretary Austin said in Singapore, it was his seventh visit to the region in the two years since he has been in office. Despite the continuing crises in the Middle East and a major war in Europe, Washington has repeatedly reaffirmed that the Indo-Pacific remains the highest priority.

Other top officials of the Biden administration have made frequent trips to the region to rebuild old alliances, develop new coalitions, and, above all, demonstrate the political will to confront China. Besides national actions, including measures for control of technology exports to China and growing military support for Taiwan, the US has sought to build the widest possible consortium for “shaping” Beijing’s strategic environment. For one, the US has drawn in its closest partners — the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada – into the grand regional coalition. This year’s SLD saw top billing to the Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese who outlined Canberra’s strategy of engagement with China while standing up to Beijing’s military bullying. Canada too is ready to join the geopolitical jousting in the Indo-Pacific. Addressing one of the plenaries at SLD, Canadian defence minister, Anita Anand promised to ramp up Canada’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific.

Washington has a more difficult time convincing Europe, which is deeply tied to the China market. But the premier European security institution, NATO, is now raising its game in Asia. Besides Australia and New Zealand, which now participate in NATO deliberations, Japan has taken the lead in drawing Europe into Asian security and South Korea is ready to join hands.

The more consequential initiatives have been in the Indo-Pacific. In the two and a half years, Washington has elevated the Quad to the summit level, unveiled the AUKUS high-tech alliance with the UK and Australia, launched trilateral coordination with Seoul and Tokyo, and unveiled a local quad – “along with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines” – to counter the Chinese military pressures against Manila. The US has been encouraging Japan to raise its military capabilities, modernising the military alliance with South Korea, revitalising the frayed military partnership with Manila and enhancing security cooperation with Indonesia.

Building a stronger strategic partnership with India has been a high priority for the Biden administration. After the SLD, Austin travelled to Delhi. His talks with the Indian establishment have apparently produced a “road map” for a significant elevation of bilateral defence cooperation, including technology transfers and joint defence industrial production.

For nearly two decades, India and the US have talked of transforming defence cooperation. The sea change in the Indo-Pacific and the shared interests in stabilising the Asian balance of power are objective realities demanding a solid India-US defence partnership. The Modi-Biden talks on June 22 will show if Delhi and Washington have the will to seize the moment.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, Delhi and a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express