How patchy rains, rising temperatures are upsetting Uttarakhand’s fruit cart

Satyawali and Belwal are not the only fruit farmers whose produce have been hit in Nainital district’s Ramnagar and Ramgarh, the fruit bowl of Uttarakhand — a change that experts attribute to the effects of frequent and intense extreme weather events, soaring temperatures, and absence of rain and snow. Other factors such as groundwater depletion and invasive species have only exacerbated the situation for fruit farmers.

Nainital district’s Ramnagar and Ramgarh are known as the fruit bowl of Uttarakhand. (Express Photo by Avaneesh Mishra)

While productivity of all fruit grown across Nainital in 2016-2017 stood at nearly 10.03 metric tonnes per hectare, in 2022-2023, it dropped to nearly 8.96 metric tonnes per hectare — a decrease of almost 11% — according to the state horticulture department. The total fruit cultivation area in Nainital district in 2016-17 was 10,915.59 hectares and the production stood at 1,09,499.64 metric tonnes. In 2022-2023, total fruit cultivation area in the district was 9,684.86 hectares and production 86,786.42 metric tonnes.

Apple has been one of the worst-hit among all major fruit grown in the belt — between 2016-2017 and 2022-2023, apple production dipped by nearly 39.36%. The drop in apple yield was followed by a dip in the production of apricot (12.09%), peach (11.97%), mango (11.66%), pear (9.66%), plum (9.5%) and litchi (4.87%).

Farmer Satyawali says, “My litchi and mango produce has dropped by 50% in the past six years. There have been no jackfruits for three to four years due to insect infestation. The situation is particularly bad this year, since a lot of fruit got damaged due to excessive heat.”

Holding changing weather patterns responsible for the decline in his orchard, Belwal adds, “My litchi yield has seen a decline of 70-80% over the past three to four years.”

Warming up at an alarming rate

According to an analysis by Climate Trends, a Delhi-based climate organisation, annual mean temperatures in Uttarakhand have increased by nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius between 1970 and 2022. The state’s temperature rise has surpassed the increase in both India’s annual mean temperatures — 0.7 degrees Celsius from 1900 — and the global average of — nearly 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1880.

The rate of warming differs across the state, with higher altitudes witnessing an accelerated rate compared to low-lying regions. The hill districts of Uttarkashi, Chamoli, Rudraprayag and Pithoragarh have experienced the most warming, states a 2021 study, ‘Locked Houses, Fallow Lands: Climate Change and Migration in Uttarakhand, India’, by Germany-based Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK) and New Delhi’s The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI).

Experts say such extreme heat and heatwaves have become a staple in the state, impacting fruit productivity and their quality. “Extreme heat is leading to forced maturity in both litchi and mangoes. The dryness has shrunk the size of the fruit,” says Belwal.

Even unusually warm winters pose a problem. Warm winters have led to less snowfall, shrinking snow cover and reduction in chilling hours required for normal growth of temperate fruit like apples, apricots, plums and walnuts.

Lalit Mohan Satyawali at his orchard in Ramnagar village in Nainital. (Express Photo by Avaneesh Mishra)

“Traditional temperate crops like high-quality apples have a chilling requirement of less than 7 degrees Celsius for 1,200-1,600 hours during the period of dormancy (December-March). Apples require two-three times more snowfall than what the region has received in the last decade, leading to poor quality yield,” Climate Trends quotes Pankaj Nautiyal, senior scientist at ICAR-CSSRI, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, as saying.

Over the years, Uttarakhand has also seen a change in weather patterns and decrease in rainfall — a significant negative trend (-2.23) has been recorded for overall monsoon rainfall in Uttarakhand between 1900 and 2020, according to the study, ‘Trend analysis and change-point detection of monsoon rainfall in Uttarakhand and its impact on vegetation productivity’, published in Journal of Agrometeorology in January.

Speaking to The Indian Express, Professor R K Singh, Head, Department of Agrometeorology, G B Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, says, “The usual weather pattern is already disturbed. The onset of monsoon has shifted, and western disturbances during winter are no longer occurring, leading to significantly reduced rainfall. This year, Uttarakhand experienced no rain at all (before the monsoon arrived).”

Pests and outbreaks of new diseases

Changing temperatures have also resulted in the prevalence of pests and outbreaks of diseases in fruit. Ramgarh-based S L Verma, 63, says his orchard has been struck by diseases several times in recent years. “These new diseases have impacted the size of peaches in my orchard. Once the size of a cricket ball, the fruit is now as big as an egg,” he says.

Talking about pest infestation, Prabhat Kumar Shukla, Principal Scientist, Plant Pathology, Central Institute for Subtropical Horticulture (CISH), said climate change has resulted in the suppression of many pests and insects that were earlier dominant, and vice versa.

“There have been changes in behaviour too. Dieback fungus, which attacked the top canopy of mangoes, is affecting the interior now. Mango wilt was insignificant earlier, but has hugely affected yields in recent years. Shoulder browning, which is caused by a fungus, was rarely reported before 2010, but is getting severe during the rainy season now. Conversely, powdery mildew disease used to damage mangoes severely, but temperature fluctuations have ensured the fungus does not survive,” says Shukla.

Deep Belwal’s orchard in Ramnagar village. (Express Photo by Avaneesh Mishra)

State Agriculture Minister Ganesh Joshi could not be reached for a comment.

To help fruit farmers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Ministry of Earth Sciences have introduced the Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa (GKMS) project. The initiative, in collaboration with agricultural universities like the ICAR institutes, and the Indian Institutes of Technology, seeks to provide bi-weekly weather forecasts and agricultural advisories in form of written bulletin in local languages to help farmers minimise crop damage and optimise favourable weather conditions, says Dr Ashutosh Mishra, a scientist in Pune’s IMD.

However, the dissemination of these advisories remains a challenge since universities do not have the resources or the manpower. “It is the responsibility of the government, the horticulture department and the district administration to ensure the farmers are educated (about crop varieties to be used, new technologies, prevention and cure of diseases, expected weather patterns, etc.). But we feel that they do not take as much interest,” he says.

With their incomes diminished due to these factors, multigenerational farmers in Uttarakhand’s fruit bowl do not want their children to continue their legacy.

Verma says, “The future of farming in Uttarakhand looks uncertain. The ecology will continue to deteriorate. Water scarcity will only exacerbate. What is the point of asking the next generation to continue this profession?”