PM’s goal to make India high-income country by 2047 unlikely, says Martin Wolf

“Inclusive and rapid growth on the desired scale will require sustained openness, but also huge investments in physical and human capital. Openness remains a handmaiden of economic progress,” he added.

At a lecture titled ‘What would it take for India to become a developed country by 2047’ organised by CUTS, Wolf said, “Is Mr Modi’s goal of making India a high-income country by 2047 plausible, or even feasible? Probably not. But India is still likely to become a superpower by the middle of the century. Size matters!”

Citing PM Modi’s objective of turning India to a developed country by 2047, Wolf said India wishes to become a high-income country but that is unlikely to be achieved. “But it should become an upper middle-income country by then. It would then also become a superpower,” he said.

He flagged that the slow-growing, shock-prone and fragile world at present will make this rise difficult. “India will have to work hard to use its influence to shape that world in a favourable direction. It will also have to shape itself to exploit the opportunities it will have,” he said. In his 2023 Independence Day speech, PM Modi had said India will be a developed country in 2047 when it celebrates its 100 years of independence.

While noting that India can still take advantage of global opportunities, Wolf said India can form useful and productive economic relations with all sides. “It can, if it tries, partially replace China as a competitive global supplier of goods and services. It can become a magnet for foreign direct investment. It can (and must) be a positive influence on global discussions,” he said.

Wolf asserted that India must be a positive influence on global discussions. He said India has substantial assets in seeking to shape the world to its advantage, adding that it is an obvious “plus one” in a world of “China plus one” and even more so in a world of “any country but China”.

He said India might be tempted by aggressive industrial policies and self sufficiency but it must resist these temptations. “Today, the opportunity increasingly lies in services, where India has a strong comparative advantage India is big enough to shape the world, while it also tries to reshape the domestic economy,” he said.