Vous faites face à des parties prenantes sceptiques. Comment pouvez-vous justifier les hypothèses de vos modèles financiers ?

From my experience as Investment Banker (previously, Credit Suisse), I believe when outlining assumptions, prioritize simplicity and realism, steering clear of technical jargon and anchoring each assumption in logical reasoning. For instance, when forecasting revenue growth, connect it to tangible drivers like market expansion or product innovations. Demonstrating a clear link between assumptions and projections helps stakeholders grasp the rationale behind the numbers, fostering trust in the predicted outcomes. By ensuring that stakeholders understand the underlying logic of your assumptions and projections, you can build credibility, enhance transparency, and instill confidence in the reliability of your forecasts.

“If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.” - Albert Einstein. To justify assumptions in your financial models when facing sceptical stakeholders, start by explaining clearly the basis of each assumption. 📊Use empirical data and historical trends to back up your claims, showing the logical flow from past performance to future projections. 📈 Highlight any industry benchmarks or expert opinions that support your assumptions. 🏦 Be transparent about the methodologies and any potential limitations or risks involved. 🔍 Engage stakeholders with visual aids, like graphs and charts, to make complex data more accessible.

Ensure stakeholder understanding by clearly explaining the rationale behind each concept. Avoid jargon and focus on the logic and reasoning behind the ideas.

To address skepticism, begin by explaining your assumptions clearly. Avoid jargon and ensure each assumption is logically grounded in reality. For example, when projecting revenue growth, link it to concrete factors like market expansion or new product launches. Stakeholders need to see the direct connection between your assumptions and your projections. If they understand the rationale behind your numbers, they are more likely to trust the predictions those numbers suggest. By providing a clear and logical basis for your assumptions, you build credibility and foster trust in your projections.

Two key perspectives must be taken into account during planning: 1) The perspective of experience with the past 2) Changes in the situation that enable a change in planning for the future. Of course, we must refer to the company's past performance and incorporate empirical values. They form a solid foundation and above all contain the calculable value and cost drivers. This is where we determine the unit economics. Planning is then prepared by estimating future events. A forecast of the occurrence of a situation is drawn up. The assumptions for the planning are adjusted accordingly. Examples include crises, changes in employee or machine productivity, new technologies, foreseeable ‘big ticket’ customer orders.

Historical data provides a solid basis for your assumptions. Show how past results, examples, and performance descriptions support your current assumptions.

Utilizing historical data effectively justifies your assumptions. By demonstrating how past trends and performance metrics inform your projections, you provide stakeholders with a tangible link to reality. For instance, if you assume a specific growth rate, show how it aligns with historical growth or explain how strategic changes or market conditions justify any deviation. This method adds credibility to your model, highlighting that your assumptions are grounded in empirical evidence. By referencing historical data, you reassure stakeholders that your projections are not speculative but based on proven patterns and informed analysis.

As a finance student, historical data is your friend in justifying assumptions in financial models. Forecasts rely on assumptions, but without a link to reality, they seem like guesses. Historical data bridges this gap by grounding assumptions in past trends, like sales growth informing future projections. This builds trust in the model. It can also justify deviations from trends. If a model predicts a different future growth rate, historical data can explain why, showcasing sound reasoning behind the assumptions. By using historical data, financial models become more believable, fostering trust with stakeholders.

Use market research, including industry reports, competitor performance, and economic indicators, to support your assumptions. This external validation helps stakeholders understand the broader context.

In addition to historical data, conduct a thorough market analysis to support your assumptions. This involves examining industry trends, competitor performance, and macroeconomic factors. Aligning your model with the broader market context makes it harder for stakeholders to dismiss your assumptions as unrealistic. Demonstrate that your projections are not made in isolation but reflect the market's potential trajectory. By incorporating comprehensive market analysis, you provide a well-rounded justification for your assumptions, reinforcing their credibility and relevance in the current business environment.

Financial models relying solely on internal data can feel like a black box. As someone evaluating these models, market analysis is essential for trusting the assumptions. It injects reality by considering: • Industry Trends: Are there growing markets or declining ones? Understanding industry direction grounds your assumptions. • Competitor Performance: How are your competitors faring? Analyzing competitor performance helps assess assumptions about market share and pricing strategies. • Macroeconomic Factors: How's the economy doing? Economic factors like interest rates and inflation can significantly impact a company's performance.

Sensitivity analysis shows how changes in parameters affect the model results. This helps stakeholders understand the complexity of the model and its potential consequences.

Performing a sensitivity analysis helps justify your financial model's assumptions by showing their impact on outcomes. This involves altering key assumptions and observing the effects on the model's results. By presenting a range of scenarios—from conservative to optimistic—you acknowledge uncertainty and illustrate how different conditions might affect the company's financial future. This transparency builds confidence in your model's robustness, demonstrating that it is resilient and adaptable to various potential market conditions, thus strengthening stakeholder trust.

Backing your assumptions with expert opinions can significantly enhance their credibility. This involves citing insights from industry analysts, consultants, or academics specializing in your market. When stakeholders see that respected authorities support your assumptions, they are more likely to accept them. Ensure these opinions are relevant and come from credible sources to avoid any negative impact. By incorporating authoritative insights, you reinforce the validity of your assumptions and build greater trust among stakeholders.

Acknowledge any potential concerns or weaknesses in your assumptions and offer mitigation strategies or alternative scenarios. This approach shows that you have thoroughly considered all aspects.

Lastly, directly address any concerns stakeholders may have about your assumptions. Actively listen to their doubts and respond with clear, evidence-based explanations. Show that you have considered multiple perspectives and that your assumptions are well-founded. By being responsive and open to feedback, you can transform skepticism into constructive dialogue, thereby strengthening the credibility of your financial models. This approach demonstrates thoroughness and fosters trust, ensuring stakeholders feel their concerns are acknowledged and addressed.

Asking a stakeholder to see the results from the other point of view (say an investor or a rating agency) could allow skeptics to understand why their numbers arent meant to be so different from what is being proposed. "Would you believe these numbers if we were pitching them to you as an outsider?"...